Nacional vs Braga — Primeira Liga forecast, Sunday, 25 October 2026
Metis Forecast
Independent model — no market priceModel updated
Nacional
21%
Draw
28%
Braga
52%
Expected goals
0.87–1.52
Nacional · Braga
Braga win 52% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (13.1%), 0–1 (13.0%), 0–2 (10.6%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 46% of simulations.
Those three cover 37% of outcomes; the other 63% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
The most likely Braga win is 0–1 (13.0%).
Nacional score at least twice in 22%; Braga in 45%.
Scoreline distribution
Braga goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.2 | 13.0 | 10.6 | 5.4 | 2.0 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 7.0 | 13.1 | 9.2 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 3.5 | 5.3 | 4.0 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: Nacional goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Most likely scores
Market odds
| Market | Pinnacle |
|---|---|
| Nacional | 5.75 |
| Draw | 4.04 |
| Braga | 1.57 |
Market reference: Pinnacle. Prices shown for context, not as a best-price comparison.
Reference prices, published with the 23 Oct · 04:31 UTC model run. They are not live and will have moved since.
What changed overnight?
vs previous runxG 0.78–1.67 → 0.87–1.52
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Nacional
| 10 Aug | A | vs Santa Clara | 2–2 | D |
| 16 Aug | H | vs Estoril | 2–0 | W |
| 23 Aug | A | vs Vitoria Guimaraes | 0–1 | L |
| 30 Aug | H | vs Estrela Amadora | 2–3 | L |
| 5 Sept | A | vs Sporting | 0–2 | L |
Braga
| 9 Aug | A | vs Moreirense | 2–2 | D |
| 31 Aug | H | vs Vitoria Guimaraes | 1–0 | W |
| 5 Sept | A | vs Alverca | 2–1 | W |
| 10 Sept | A | vs Estrela Amadora | 1–2 | L |
| 14 Sept | H | vs Estoril | 1–0 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Nacional (Home · 4 matches) | Braga (Away · 4 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 50.0% | 75.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 75.0% | 75.0% |
| Clean sheet | 25.0% | 25.0% |
| Avg goals | 3.75 | 2.50 |
Home stats use Nacional's home record; away stats use Braga's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.