Moreirense vs Maritimo — Primeira Liga result and pre-match forecast, Monday, 14 September 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · 11.1 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
Moreirense
37%
pick · result
Draw
30%
Maritimo
34%
Final score
3–1
Top pick landed
Metis gave a Moreirense win 36.9% before kick-off, and its most likely result was a Moreirense win. Expected goals 1.27–1.26 against 3–1 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 1–1 (14.1%), 1–0 (9.9%), 0–0 (9.2%). It finished 3–1.
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Moreirense
| 9 Aug | H | vs Braga | 2–2 | D |
| 16 Aug | A | vs Arouca | 0–4 | L |
| 30 Aug | A | vs Casa Pia | 1–0 | W |
| 4 Sept | A | vs Porto | 1–2 | L |
| 9 Sept | H | vs Benfica | 0–4 | L |
Maritimo
| 8 Aug | H | vs Casa Pia | 1–0 | W |
| 16 Aug | A | vs Famalicao | 2–1 | W |
| 22 Aug | H | vs Academico Viseu | 2–2 | D |
| 29 Aug | A | vs Arouca | 1–2 | L |
| 5 Sept | H | vs Benfica | 0–3 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Moreirense (Home · 5 matches) | Maritimo (Away · 5 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 60.0% | 80.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 80.0% | 80.0% |
| Clean sheet | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Avg goals | 3.20 | 3.40 |
Home stats use Moreirense's home record; away stats use Maritimo's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.