Gil Vicente vs Maritimo — Primeira Liga result and pre-match forecast, Saturday, 19 September 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · 10.9 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
Gil Vicente
48%
top pick
Draw
28%
result
Maritimo
24%
Final score
1–1
Top pick missed
Metis gave the draw 28.2% before kick-off, and its most likely result was a Gil Vicente win. Expected goals 1.52–1.02 against 1–1 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 1–1 (13.5%), 1–0 (11.3%), 2–1 (9.7%). It finished 1–1 — one of them.
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Gil Vicente
| 9 Aug | H | vs Rio Ave | 1–0 | W |
| 24 Aug | H | vs Casa Pia | 2–0 | W |
| 30 Aug | A | vs Famalicao | 0–0 | D |
| 6 Sept | H | vs Academico Viseu | 0–1 | L |
| 13 Sept | A | vs Benfica | 1–3 | L |
Maritimo
| 8 Aug | H | vs Casa Pia | 1–0 | W |
| 16 Aug | A | vs Famalicao | 2–1 | W |
| 22 Aug | H | vs Academico Viseu | 2–2 | D |
| 29 Aug | A | vs Arouca | 1–2 | L |
| 5 Sept | H | vs Benfica | 0–3 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Gil Vicente (Home · 6 matches) | Maritimo (Away · 5 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 16.7% | 80.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 0.0% | 80.0% |
| Clean sheet | 50.0% | 0.0% |
| Avg goals | 1.17 | 3.40 |
Home stats use Gil Vicente's home record; away stats use Maritimo's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.