Gil Vicente head into this one in decent shape, sitting sixth and unbeaten in four of their last five at home, where they have been a notably difficult side to score against. Their clean sheet rate and low average goals conceded at home paint a picture of a well-organised defensive unit, and with Arouca shipping over two goals per game on the road this season, the hosts look well-placed to control proceedings.

Arouca's away record is a concern - one clean sheet in four road trips and a high conceded average suggests they tend to open up, which suits a Gil Vicente side that scores reliably at home. Their O2.5 rate away from home sits above the league average, though the single H2H meeting ended level, hinting the gap between these sides may be narrower on the day.

On balance, Gil Vicente look the stronger outfit here, and this fixture looks slightly more open than their home defensive record might suggest.