Estrela Amadora vs Braga — Primeira Liga result and pre-match forecast, Thursday, 10 September 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · 11.2 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
Estrela Amadora
18%
result
Draw
24%
Braga
58%
top pick
Final score
2–1
Top pick missed
Metis gave an Estrela Amadora win 17.8% before kick-off, and its most likely result was a Braga win. Expected goals 1.01–1.66 against 2–1 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 0–1 (13.9%), 1–2 (13.7%), 1–1 (11.6%). It finished 2–1.
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Estrela Amadora
| 8 Aug | H | vs Sporting | 2–2 | D |
| 15 Aug | A | vs Alverca | 2–2 | D |
| 30 Aug | A | vs Nacional | 3–2 | W |
| 5 Sept | H | vs Famalicao | 2–2 | D |
| 10 Sept | H | vs Braga | 2–1 | W |
Braga
| 9 Aug | A | vs Moreirense | 2–2 | D |
| 31 Aug | H | vs Vitoria Guimaraes | 1–0 | W |
| 5 Sept | A | vs Alverca | 2–1 | W |
| 10 Sept | A | vs Estrela Amadora | 1–2 | L |
| 14 Sept | H | vs Estoril | 1–0 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Estrela Amadora (Home · 5 matches) | Braga (Away · 5 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 60.0% | 60.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 60.0% | 60.0% |
| Clean sheet | 0.0% | 20.0% |
| Avg goals | 3.00 | 2.20 |
Home stats use Estrela Amadora's home record; away stats use Braga's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.