Estrela Amadora vs Academico Viseu — Primeira Liga result and pre-match forecast, Sunday, 20 September 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · 6.1 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
Estrela Amadora
46%
top pick
Draw
28%
Academico Viseu
26%
result
Final score
0–2
Top pick missed
Metis gave an Academico Viseu win 26.0% before kick-off, and its most likely result was an Estrela Amadora win. Expected goals 1.52–1.11 against 0–2 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 1–1 (13.5%), 1–0 (10.0%), 2–1 (9.4%). It finished 0–2.
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Estrela Amadora
| 8 Aug | H | vs Sporting | 2–2 | D |
| 15 Aug | A | vs Alverca | 2–2 | D |
| 30 Aug | A | vs Nacional | 3–2 | W |
| 5 Sept | H | vs Famalicao | 2–2 | D |
| 10 Sept | H | vs Braga | 2–1 | W |
Academico Viseu
| 9 Aug | A | vs Benfica | 2–2 | D |
| 15 Aug | H | vs Santa Clara | 0–1 | L |
| 22 Aug | A | vs Maritimo | 2–2 | D |
| 29 Aug | H | vs Porto | 0–3 | L |
| 6 Sept | A | vs Gil Vicente | 1–0 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Estrela Amadora (Home · 5 matches) | Academico Viseu (Away · 5 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 60.0% | 60.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 60.0% | 60.0% |
| Clean sheet | 0.0% | 40.0% |
| Avg goals | 3.00 | 2.80 |
Home stats use Estrela Amadora's home record; away stats use Academico Viseu's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.