Estrela Amadora vs Academico Viseu — Primeira Liga forecast, Sunday, 20 September 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Estrela Amadora
45%
Draw
29%
Academico Viseu
26%
Expected goals
1.51–1.12
Estrela Amadora · Academico Viseu
Estrela Amadora win 45% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (13.8%), 1–0 (9.8%), 2–1 (9.3%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 54% of simulations.
Those three cover 33% of outcomes; the other 67% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
The most likely Estrela Amadora win is 1–0 (9.8%).
Estrela Amadora score at least twice in 45%; Academico Viseu in 31%.
Scoreline distribution
Academico Viseu goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.4 | 6.7 | 4.3 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.8 | 13.8 | 6.5 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 9.3 | 5.5 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 4.6 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: Estrela Amadora goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 44% | 28% | 28% |
| Market reference | 45% | 29% | 26% |
| Metis Forecast | 45% | 29% | 26% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
Market odds
| Market | Pinnacle | Bet365 | William Hill | 1xBet | Betano | Betfair SB | BetVictor | MarathonBet | SBO | Best |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Estrela Amadora | 2.20 | 2.15 | 2.15 | 2.24 | 2.22 | 2.10 | 2.10 | 2.15 | 2.12 | 2.24 1xBet |
| Draw | 3.30 | 3.30 | 3.10 | 3.34 | 3.25 | 3.50 | 3.20 | 3.20 | 2.94 | 3.50 Betfair SB |
| Academico Viseu | 3.55 | 3.40 | 3.30 | 3.50 | 3.40 | 3.40 | 3.25 | 3.36 | 2.94 | 3.55 Pinnacle |
Reference prices, published with the 23 Sep · 03:58 UTC model run. They are not live and will have moved since.
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Recent form
Estrela Amadora
| 8 Aug | H | vs Sporting | 2–2 | D |
| 15 Aug | A | vs Alverca | 2–2 | D |
| 30 Aug | A | vs Nacional | 3–2 | W |
| 5 Sept | H | vs Famalicao | 2–2 | D |
| 10 Sept | H | vs Braga | 2–1 | W |
Academico Viseu
| 9 Aug | A | vs Benfica | 2–2 | D |
| 15 Aug | H | vs Santa Clara | 0–1 | L |
| 22 Aug | A | vs Maritimo | 2–2 | D |
| 29 Aug | H | vs Porto | 0–3 | L |
| 6 Sept | A | vs Gil Vicente | 1–0 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Estrela Amadora (Home · 4 matches) | Academico Viseu (Away · 4 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 75.0% | 50.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 75.0% | 50.0% |
| Clean sheet | 0.0% | 50.0% |
| Avg goals | 3.25 | 2.75 |
Home stats use Estrela Amadora's home record; away stats use Academico Viseu's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.