Estoril vs Maritimo — Primeira Liga forecast, Sunday, 8 November 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Estoril
46%
Draw
27%
Maritimo
27%
Expected goals
1.52–1.18
Estoril · Maritimo
Estoril win 46% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (12.8%), 2–1 (10.2%), 1–0 (10.2%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 55% of simulations.
Those three cover 33% of outcomes; the other 67% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
The most likely Estoril win is 2–1 (10.2%).
Estoril score at least twice in 46%; Maritimo in 33%.
Scoreline distribution
Maritimo goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.5 | 6.3 | 4.6 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.2 | 12.8 | 6.4 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.9 | 10.2 | 5.3 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 4.8 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.7 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: Estoril goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 39% | 28% | 34% |
| Market reference | 46% | 27% | 27% |
| Metis Forecast | 46% | 27% | 27% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
Market odds
| Market | Pinnacle |
|---|---|
| Estoril | 2.09 |
| Draw | 3.53 |
| Maritimo | 3.49 |
Market reference: Pinnacle. Prices shown for context, not as a best-price comparison.
Reference prices, published with the 02 Nov · 05:06 UTC model run. They are not live and will have moved since.
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Estoril
| 7 Aug | H | vs Famalicao | 1–1 | D |
| 16 Aug | A | vs Nacional | 0–2 | L |
| 22 Aug | H | vs Rio Ave | 0–2 | L |
| 31 Aug | A | vs Benfica | 1–2 | L |
| 7 Sept | H | vs Arouca | 0–0 | D |
Maritimo
| 8 Aug | H | vs Casa Pia | 1–0 | W |
| 16 Aug | A | vs Famalicao | 2–1 | W |
| 22 Aug | H | vs Academico Viseu | 2–2 | D |
| 29 Aug | A | vs Arouca | 1–2 | L |
| 5 Sept | H | vs Benfica | 0–3 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Estoril (Home · 5 matches) | Maritimo (Away · 5 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 60.0% | 80.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 40.0% | 80.0% |
| Clean sheet | 20.0% | 0.0% |
| Avg goals | 2.20 | 3.40 |
Home stats use Estoril's home record; away stats use Maritimo's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.