Estoril head into this one in poor shape, taking just one point from their last five and looking vulnerable at the back despite playing at home. Their BTTS rate of 73% in home games is well above the league average of 47%, suggesting they tend to be involved in open, two-way contests — but that cuts both ways when confidence is low. Famalicao arrive in considerably better nick, unbeaten in five on the road and sitting fifth in the table. Their away record tells a more cautious story though, with a clean sheet rate of 33% and a BTTS figure of just 40%, pointing to a team that is disciplined and hard to break down.

The data suggests Famalicao are the stronger side right now, and the visitors look undervalued given the gulf in current form. This has the feel of a tight, low-scoring affair rather than the open game Estoril's home stats might imply.