Estoril head into this on the back of a difficult run, winning none of their last five and looking vulnerable at home, where they have kept a clean sheet just 12% of the time this season. Benfica arrive in contrasting form, unbeaten in five away matches and conceding just 0.7 goals per game on the road, which comfortably outperforms the rest of the division. Their away clean sheet rate of 44% underlines a defensive solidity that Estoril will struggle to breach.

The goal data adds an interesting wrinkle. Estoril's home BTTS rate of 69% sits well above the league average of 48%, suggesting their games tend to be open affairs, but Benfica's away defensive numbers tell a different story. The visitors look to be travelling in the kind of form that can suppress that pattern.

Form, position, and recent head-to-head evidence all point the same way here. This looks more comfortable for Benfica than a mid-table home side might typically suggest.