Braga vs Famalicao — Primeira Liga forecast, Sunday, 1 November 2026
Metis Forecast
Independent model — no market priceModel updated
Braga
35%
Draw
29%
Famalicao
35%
Expected goals
1.24–1.24
Braga · Famalicao
Famalicao win 35% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (13.9%), 0–0 (9.4%), 0–1 (9.4%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 51% of simulations.
Those three cover 33% of outcomes; the other 67% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
Braga score at least twice in 35%; Famalicao in 35%.
Scoreline distribution
Famalicao goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.4 | 9.4 | 6.5 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.4 | 13.9 | 8.0 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 8.0 | 4.9 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 3.3 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: Braga goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Most likely scores
Market odds
| Market | Pinnacle |
|---|---|
| Braga | 1.72 |
| Draw | 3.65 |
| Famalicao | 4.98 |
Market reference: Pinnacle. Prices shown for context, not as a best-price comparison.
Reference prices, published with the 26 Oct · 04:41 UTC model run. They are not live and will have moved since.
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Braga
| 9 Aug | A | vs Moreirense | 2–2 | D |
| 31 Aug | H | vs Vitoria Guimaraes | 1–0 | W |
| 5 Sept | A | vs Alverca | 2–1 | W |
| 10 Sept | A | vs Estrela Amadora | 1–2 | L |
| 14 Sept | H | vs Estoril | 1–0 | W |
Famalicao
| 7 Aug | A | vs Estoril | 1–1 | D |
| 16 Aug | H | vs Maritimo | 1–2 | L |
| 23 Aug | A | vs Santa Clara | 0–1 | L |
| 30 Aug | H | vs Gil Vicente | 0–0 | D |
| 5 Sept | A | vs Estrela Amadora | 2–2 | D |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Braga (Home · 4 matches) | Famalicao (Away · 4 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 50.0% | 50.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 50.0% | 50.0% |
| Clean sheet | 50.0% | 25.0% |
| Avg goals | 2.25 | 2.75 |
Home stats use Braga's home record; away stats use Famalicao's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.