Braga vs Estoril — Primeira Liga result and pre-match forecast, Monday, 14 September 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · 11.6 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
Braga
69%
pick · result
Draw
19%
Estoril
12%
Final score
1–0
Top pick landed
Metis gave a Braga win 68.9% before kick-off, and its most likely result was a Braga win. Expected goals 1.84–0.80 against 1–0 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 1–0 (16.2%), 2–1 (13.9%), 2–0 (13.0%). It finished 1–0 — one of them.
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Braga
| 9 Aug | A | vs Moreirense | 2–2 | D |
| 31 Aug | H | vs Vitoria Guimaraes | 1–0 | W |
| 5 Sept | A | vs Alverca | 2–1 | W |
| 10 Sept | A | vs Estrela Amadora | 1–2 | L |
| 14 Sept | H | vs Estoril | 1–0 | W |
Estoril
| 7 Aug | H | vs Famalicao | 1–1 | D |
| 16 Aug | A | vs Nacional | 0–2 | L |
| 22 Aug | H | vs Rio Ave | 0–2 | L |
| 31 Aug | A | vs Benfica | 1–2 | L |
| 7 Sept | H | vs Arouca | 0–0 | D |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Braga (Home · 5 matches) | Estoril (Away · 5 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 40.0% | 40.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 60.0% | 60.0% |
| Clean sheet | 60.0% | 0.0% |
| Avg goals | 2.40 | 2.60 |
Home stats use Braga's home record; away stats use Estoril's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.