Academico Viseu vs Vitoria Guimaraes — Primeira Liga result and pre-match forecast, Saturday, 12 September 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · 11.1 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
Academico Viseu
24%
result
Draw
28%
Vitoria Guimaraes
48%
top pick
Final score
2–1
Top pick missed
Metis gave an Academico Viseu win 24.3% before kick-off, and its most likely result was a Vitoria Guimaraes win. Expected goals 1.05–1.43 against 2–1 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 1–1 (13.2%), 0–1 (12.9%), 1–2 (10.9%). It finished 2–1.
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Academico Viseu
| 9 Aug | A | vs Benfica | 2–2 | D |
| 15 Aug | H | vs Santa Clara | 0–1 | L |
| 22 Aug | A | vs Maritimo | 2–2 | D |
| 29 Aug | H | vs Porto | 0–3 | L |
| 6 Sept | A | vs Gil Vicente | 1–0 | W |
Vitoria Guimaraes
| 8 Aug | H | vs Arouca | 0–1 | L |
| 14 Aug | A | vs Sporting | 2–3 | L |
| 23 Aug | H | vs Nacional | 1–0 | W |
| 31 Aug | A | vs Braga | 0–1 | L |
| 6 Sept | H | vs Casa Pia | 0–0 | D |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Academico Viseu (Home · 5 matches) | Vitoria Guimaraes (Away · 5 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 60.0% | 40.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 80.0% | 40.0% |
| Clean sheet | 0.0% | 20.0% |
| Avg goals | 2.60 | 2.20 |
Home stats use Academico Viseu's home record; away stats use Vitoria Guimaraes's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.