Sunderland vs Leeds — Premier League forecast, Sunday, 25 October 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Sunderland
30%
Draw
30%
Leeds
40%
Expected goals
1.15–1.33
Sunderland · Leeds
Leeds win 40% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (14.2%), 0–1 (10.3%), 0–0 (9.6%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 52% of simulations.
Those three cover 34% of outcomes; the other 66% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
Sunderland score at least twice in 32%; Leeds in 39%.
Scoreline distribution
Leeds goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.6 | 10.3 | 7.3 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.0 | 14.2 | 8.9 | 3.8 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.4 | 6.9 | 5.1 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 2.8 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: Sunderland goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 34% | 29% | 37% |
| Market reference | 30% | 30% | 40% |
| Metis Forecast | 30% | 30% | 40% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
Market odds
| Market | Pinnacle |
|---|---|
| Sunderland | 3.21 |
| Draw | 3.23 |
| Leeds | 2.43 |
Market reference: Pinnacle. Prices shown for context, not as a best-price comparison.
Reference prices, published with the 23 Oct · 04:31 UTC model run. They are not live and will have moved since.
Fantasy impact · GW8
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Sunderland
| 22 Aug | A | vs Ipswich | 1–2 | L |
| 30 Aug | H | vs Fulham | 1–0 | W |
| 5 Sept | A | vs Brentford | 1–1 | D |
| 12 Sept | H | vs Arsenal | 0–2 | L |
| 20 Sept | A | vs Man City | 3–5 | L |
Leeds
| 22 Aug | A | vs Nottm Forest | 1–0 | W |
| 30 Aug | H | vs Brentford | 1–1 | D |
| 5 Sept | A | vs Brighton | 1–1 | D |
| 14 Sept | H | vs Newcastle | 4–1 | W |
| 20 Sept | H | vs Crystal Palace | 0–0 | D |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Sunderland (Home · 3 matches) | Leeds (Away · 3 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 0.0% | 66.7% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 0.0% | 33.3% |
| Clean sheet | 33.3% | 33.3% |
| Avg goals | 1.67 | 2.00 |
Home stats use Sunderland's home record; away stats use Leeds's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.