Sunderland vs Fulham — Premier League result and pre-match forecast, Sunday, 30 August 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · 5.1 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
Sunderland
39%
pick · result
Draw
30%
Fulham
31%
Final score
1–0
Top pick landed
Metis gave a Sunderland win 38.9% before kick-off, and its most likely result was a Sunderland win. Expected goals 1.37–1.22 against 1–0 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 1–1 (14.3%), 1–0 (9.1%), 0–0 (8.8%). It finished 1–0 — one of them.
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Sunderland
| 22 Aug | A | vs Ipswich | 1–2 | L |
| 30 Aug | H | vs Fulham | 1–0 | W |
| 5 Sept | A | vs Brentford | 1–1 | D |
| 12 Sept | H | vs Arsenal | 0–2 | L |
| 20 Sept | A | vs Man City | 3–5 | L |
Fulham
| 24 Aug | H | vs Chelsea | 2–3 | L |
| 30 Aug | A | vs Sunderland | 0–1 | L |
| 5 Sept | H | vs Crystal Palace | 2–3 | L |
| 12 Sept | A | vs Liverpool | 0–0 | D |
| 20 Sept | H | vs Man Utd | 1–1 | D |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Sunderland (Home · 2 matches) | Fulham (Away · 2 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Clean sheet | 50.0% | 50.0% |
| Avg goals | 1.50 | 0.50 |
Home stats use Sunderland's home record; away stats use Fulham's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.