๐ด๓ ง๓ ข๓ ฅ๓ ฎ๓ ง๓ ฟ Premier LeagueยทSunday, 30 August 2026ยท13:00
Odds comparison
| Market | Pinnacle | Best |
|---|---|---|
| Sunderland | 2.46 | 2.46 |
| Draw | 3.33 | 3.33 |
| Fulham | 3.06 | 3.06 |
Metis Forecast
model + marketSunderland
39%
Draw
29%
Fulham
32%
Sunderland 1.36 xGexpected goals1.19 xG Fulham
Sunderland win 39% of the current Metis Forecast.
Both teams score in 53% of simulations.
The most likely scoreline is 1โ1 (13.8%).
Sunderland score at least twice in 39%; Fulham in 34%.
1โ1 13.8%1โ0 9.5%0โ0 8.9%2โ1 8.6%0โ1 8.2%1โ2 7.5%
Scoreline distribution
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.9 | 8.2 | 5.5 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.5 | 13.8 | 7.5 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 8.5 | 5.2 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 3.9 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
rows = Sunderland goals ยท columns = Fulham goals ยท % of simulations
Match outcomes
Both teams score53%
Over 1.5 goals73%
Over 2.5 goals47%
Over 3.5 goals26%
Over 4.5 goals12%
Sunderland clean sheet30%
Fulham clean sheet26%
Sunderland score 2+39%
Fulham score 2+34%
Sunderland score 3+16%
Model vs market
| Source | Sunderland | Draw | Fulham |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 40% | 29% | 32% |
| Market (de-vigged) | 39% | 29% | 32% |
| Metis Forecast | 39% | 29% | 32% |
The Metis Forecast combines the model's scoreline structure with de-vigged market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model output is kept separate and benchmarked independently.
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Recent form
Sunderland
| 16 Aug | H | vs West Ham | 3โ0 | W |
| 23 Aug | A | vs Burnley | 0โ2 | L |
| 30 Aug | H | vs Brentford | 2โ1 | W |
| 13 Sept | A | vs Crystal Palace | 0โ0 | D |
| 21 Sept | H | vs Aston Villa | 1โ1 | D |
Fulham
| 16 Aug | A | vs Brighton | 1โ1 | D |
| 24 Aug | H | vs Man Utd | 1โ1 | D |
| 30 Aug | A | vs Chelsea | 0โ2 | L |
| 13 Sept | H | vs Leeds | 1โ0 | W |
| 20 Sept | H | vs Brentford | 3โ1 | W |
Head to head
| 22 Feb 26 | SunderlandvsFulham | 1 โ 3 |
| 22 Nov 25 | FulhamvsSunderland | 1 โ 0 |
Sunderland: 0W 0D 2L in last 2
Model context
| Stat | Sunderland (Home) | Fulham (Away) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 47.4% | 52.6% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 47.4% | 47.4% |
| Clean sheet | 36.8% | 15.8% |
| Avg goals | 2.37 | 2.53 |
Home stats use Sunderland's home record; away stats use Fulham's away record this season.