Newcastle vs Hull — Premier League result and pre-match forecast, Saturday, 19 September 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · 10.4 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
Newcastle
60%
pick · result
Draw
22%
Hull
18%
Final score
2–1
Top pick landed
Metis gave a Newcastle win 60.0% before kick-off, and its most likely result was a Newcastle win. Expected goals 1.84–0.97 against 2–1 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 1–0 (11.5%), 2–1 (11.3%), 2–0 (10.7%). It finished 2–1 — one of them.
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Newcastle
| 23 Aug | H | vs Liverpool | 2–2 | D |
| 29 Aug | A | vs Tottenham | 2–0 | W |
| 5 Sept | H | vs Bournemouth | 2–2 | D |
| 14 Sept | A | vs Leeds | 1–4 | L |
| 19 Sept | H | vs Hull | 2–1 | W |
Hull
| 22 Aug | H | vs Man Utd | 2–0 | W |
| 29 Aug | A | vs Coventry | 1–0 | W |
| 5 Sept | H | vs Aston Villa | 0–0 | D |
| 12 Sept | A | vs Chelsea | 2–2 | D |
| 19 Sept | A | vs Newcastle | 1–2 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Newcastle (Home · 5 matches) | Hull (Away · 4 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 60.0% | 50.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 60.0% | 50.0% |
| Clean sheet | 0.0% | 25.0% |
| Avg goals | 2.60 | 2.25 |
Home stats use Newcastle's home record; away stats use Hull's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.