Man City vs Sunderland — Premier League forecast, Sunday, 20 September 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Man City
74%
Draw
16%
Sunderland
10%
Expected goals
2.36–0.69
Man City · Sunderland
Man City win 74% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 2–0 (13.2%), 3–0 (10.6%), 1–0 (10.4%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 45% of simulations.
Those three cover 34% of outcomes; the other 66% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
Man City score at least twice in 68%; Sunderland in 15%.
Scoreline distribution
Sunderland goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.2 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 10.4 | 7.8 | 3.1 | 0.7 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 13.2 | 8.7 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 10.6 | 7.0 | 2.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 6.4 | 4.2 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 4.9 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: Man City goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 76% | 17% | 8% |
| Market reference | 74% | 16% | 10% |
| Metis Forecast | 74% | 16% | 10% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
Market odds
| Market | Pinnacle | Bet365 | William Hill | 1xBet | Betano | Betfair SB | BetVictor | MarathonBet | SBO | Best |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Man City | 1.33 | 1.33 | 1.33 | 1.36 | 1.36 | 1.33 | 1.30 | 1.34 | 1.31 | 1.36 1xBet |
| Draw | 5.64 | 5.25 | 5.00 | 5.64 | 5.60 | 5.00 | 5.50 | 5.55 | 4.77 | 5.64 Pinnacle |
| Sunderland | 8.95 | 8.50 | 8.50 | 9.65 | 9.00 | 9.50 | 9.50 | 9.50 | 6.76 | 9.65 1xBet |
Reference prices, published with the 23 Sep · 03:58 UTC model run. They are not live and will have moved since.
Want the model's read each week? Subscribe for free.
Recent form
Man City
| 23 Aug | H | vs Bournemouth | 2–1 | W |
| 28 Aug | A | vs Crystal Palace | 4–1 | W |
| 5 Sept | H | vs Coventry | 1–0 | W |
| 13 Sept | A | vs Man Utd | 1–0 | W |
| 20 Sept | H | vs Sunderland | 5–3 | W |
Sunderland
| 22 Aug | A | vs Ipswich | 1–2 | L |
| 30 Aug | H | vs Fulham | 1–0 | W |
| 5 Sept | A | vs Brentford | 1–1 | D |
| 12 Sept | H | vs Arsenal | 0–2 | L |
| 20 Sept | A | vs Man City | 3–5 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Man City (Home · 3 matches) | Sunderland (Away · 3 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 66.7% | 100.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 66.7% | 66.7% |
| Clean sheet | 33.3% | 0.0% |
| Avg goals | 4.00 | 4.33 |
Home stats use Man City's home record; away stats use Sunderland's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.