Liverpool vs Fulham — Premier League result and pre-match forecast, Saturday, 12 September 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · 5.6 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
Liverpool
63%
top pick
Draw
21%
result
Fulham
16%
Final score
0–0
Top pick missed
Metis gave the draw 20.7% before kick-off, and its most likely result was a Liverpool win. Expected goals 2.00–0.97 against 0–0 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 2–1 (11.4%), 2–0 (10.7%), 1–0 (10.6%). It finished 0–0.
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Liverpool
| 23 Aug | A | vs Newcastle | 2–2 | D |
| 29 Aug | H | vs Nottm Forest | 2–2 | D |
| 4 Sept | A | vs Ipswich | 2–0 | W |
| 12 Sept | H | vs Fulham | 0–0 | D |
| 20 Sept | A | vs Bournemouth | 1–0 | W |
Fulham
| 24 Aug | H | vs Chelsea | 2–3 | L |
| 30 Aug | A | vs Sunderland | 0–1 | L |
| 5 Sept | H | vs Crystal Palace | 2–3 | L |
| 12 Sept | A | vs Liverpool | 0–0 | D |
| 20 Sept | H | vs Man Utd | 1–1 | D |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Liverpool (Home · 5 matches) | Fulham (Away · 5 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 20.0% | 40.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 40.0% | 20.0% |
| Clean sheet | 40.0% | 40.0% |
| Avg goals | 2.00 | 1.40 |
Home stats use Liverpool's home record; away stats use Fulham's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.