Leeds vs Crystal Palace — Premier League forecast, Sunday, 20 September 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Leeds
57%
Draw
24%
Crystal Palace
19%
Expected goals
1.82–1.03
Leeds · Crystal Palace
Leeds win 57% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (11.3%), 2–1 (11.2%), 1–0 (10.7%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 55% of simulations.
Those three cover 33% of outcomes; the other 67% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
The most likely Leeds win is 2–1 (11.2%).
Leeds score at least twice in 55%; Crystal Palace in 27%.
Scoreline distribution
Crystal Palace goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 4.4 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.7 | 11.3 | 4.9 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.9 | 11.2 | 5.0 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.5 | 6.3 | 3.6 | 1.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.3 | 2.6 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 1.1 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: Leeds goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 49% | 26% | 25% |
| Market reference | 57% | 24% | 19% |
| Metis Forecast | 57% | 24% | 19% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
Market odds
| Market | Pinnacle | Bet365 | William Hill | 1xBet | Betano | Betfair SB | BetVictor | MarathonBet | SBO | Best |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leeds | 1.69 | 1.67 | 1.73 | 1.76 | 1.78 | 1.70 | 1.67 | 1.71 | 1.70 | 1.78 Betano |
| Draw | 4.04 | 4.00 | 3.75 | 4.07 | 4.00 | 3.90 | 4.10 | 3.96 | 3.45 | 4.10 BetVictor |
| Crystal Palace | 5.02 | 5.00 | 4.60 | 4.99 | 4.75 | 5.00 | 4.80 | 4.85 | 4.00 | 5.02 Pinnacle |
Reference prices, published with the 23 Sep · 03:58 UTC model run. They are not live and will have moved since.
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Recent form
Leeds
| 22 Aug | A | vs Nottm Forest | 1–0 | W |
| 30 Aug | H | vs Brentford | 1–1 | D |
| 5 Sept | A | vs Brighton | 1–1 | D |
| 14 Sept | H | vs Newcastle | 4–1 | W |
| 20 Sept | H | vs Crystal Palace | 0–0 | D |
Crystal Palace
| 22 Aug | A | vs Everton | 0–2 | L |
| 28 Aug | H | vs Man City | 1–4 | L |
| 5 Sept | A | vs Fulham | 3–2 | W |
| 12 Sept | H | vs Ipswich | 2–3 | L |
| 20 Sept | A | vs Leeds | 0–0 | D |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Leeds (Home · 3 matches) | Crystal Palace (Away · 3 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 66.7% | 33.3% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 33.3% | 33.3% |
| Clean sheet | 33.3% | 33.3% |
| Avg goals | 2.33 | 2.33 |
Home stats use Leeds's home record; away stats use Crystal Palace's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.