Leeds vs Crystal Palace — Premier League result and pre-match forecast, Sunday, 20 September 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · 4.6 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
Leeds
57%
top pick
Draw
24%
result
Crystal Palace
19%
Final score
0–0
Top pick missed
Metis gave the draw 24.1% before kick-off, and its most likely result was a Leeds win. Expected goals 1.82–1.04 against 0–0 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 1–1 (11.4%), 2–1 (11.1%), 1–0 (10.5%). It finished 0–0.
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Leeds
| 22 Aug | A | vs Nottm Forest | 1–0 | W |
| 30 Aug | H | vs Brentford | 1–1 | D |
| 5 Sept | A | vs Brighton | 1–1 | D |
| 14 Sept | H | vs Newcastle | 4–1 | W |
| 20 Sept | H | vs Crystal Palace | 0–0 | D |
Crystal Palace
| 22 Aug | A | vs Everton | 0–2 | L |
| 28 Aug | H | vs Man City | 1–4 | L |
| 5 Sept | A | vs Fulham | 3–2 | W |
| 12 Sept | H | vs Ipswich | 2–3 | L |
| 20 Sept | A | vs Leeds | 0–0 | D |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Leeds (Home · 4 matches) | Crystal Palace (Away · 5 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 75.0% | 20.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 25.0% | 40.0% |
| Clean sheet | 25.0% | 20.0% |
| Avg goals | 2.25 | 2.80 |
Home stats use Leeds's home record; away stats use Crystal Palace's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.