Ipswich vs Liverpool — Premier League result and pre-match forecast, Friday, 4 September 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · 9.5 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
Ipswich
16%
Draw
20%
Liverpool
64%
pick · result
Final score
0–2
Top pick landed
Metis gave a Liverpool win 64.0% before kick-off, and its most likely result was a Liverpool win. Expected goals 0.99–2.11 against 0–2 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 1–2 (10.6%), 0–2 (10.3%), 1–1 (9.4%). It finished 0–2 — one of them.
Want the model's read each week? Subscribe for free.
Recent form
Ipswich
| 22 Aug | H | vs Sunderland | 2–1 | W |
| 30 Aug | A | vs Man Utd | 2–5 | L |
| 4 Sept | H | vs Liverpool | 0–2 | L |
| 12 Sept | A | vs Crystal Palace | 3–2 | W |
| 19 Sept | A | vs Everton | 0–1 | L |
Liverpool
| 23 Aug | A | vs Newcastle | 2–2 | D |
| 29 Aug | H | vs Nottm Forest | 2–2 | D |
| 4 Sept | A | vs Ipswich | 2–0 | W |
| 12 Sept | H | vs Fulham | 0–0 | D |
| 20 Sept | A | vs Bournemouth | 1–0 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Ipswich (Home · 2 matches) | Liverpool (Away · 3 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 50.0% | 33.3% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 50.0% | 33.3% |
| Clean sheet | 0.0% | 66.7% |
| Avg goals | 2.50 | 2.33 |
Home stats use Ipswich's home record; away stats use Liverpool's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.