Hull vs Aston Villa — Premier League result and pre-match forecast, Saturday, 5 September 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · 8.6 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
Hull
23%
Draw
26%
result
Aston Villa
51%
top pick
Final score
0–0
Top pick missed
Metis gave the draw 25.7% before kick-off, and its most likely result was an Aston Villa win. Expected goals 1.16–1.56 against 0–0 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 1–2 (12.4%), 1–1 (12.3%), 0–1 (11.9%). It finished 0–0.
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Hull
| 22 Aug | H | vs Man Utd | 2–0 | W |
| 29 Aug | A | vs Coventry | 1–0 | W |
| 5 Sept | H | vs Aston Villa | 0–0 | D |
| 12 Sept | A | vs Chelsea | 2–2 | D |
| 19 Sept | A | vs Newcastle | 1–2 | L |
Aston Villa
| 23 Aug | A | vs Brighton | 0–4 | L |
| 31 Aug | H | vs Arsenal | 0–1 | L |
| 5 Sept | A | vs Hull | 0–0 | D |
| 12 Sept | H | vs Nottm Forest | 1–2 | L |
| 19 Sept | A | vs Tottenham | 3–2 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Hull (Home · 2 matches) | Aston Villa (Away · 3 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 0.0% | 33.3% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 0.0% | 66.7% |
| Clean sheet | 100.0% | 33.3% |
| Avg goals | 1.00 | 3.00 |
Home stats use Hull's home record; away stats use Aston Villa's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.