Chelsea vs Hull — Premier League result and pre-match forecast, Saturday, 12 September 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · 5.6 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
Chelsea
80%
top pick
Draw
13%
result
Hull
7%
Final score
2–2
Top pick missed
Metis gave the draw 13.5% before kick-off, and its most likely result was a Chelsea win. Expected goals 2.22–0.79 against 2–2 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 2–1 (15.0%), 1–0 (14.3%), 2–0 (13.7%). It finished 2–2.
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Chelsea
| 24 Aug | A | vs Fulham | 3–2 | W |
| 30 Aug | H | vs Brighton | 4–3 | W |
| 6 Sept | A | vs Arsenal | 1–2 | L |
| 12 Sept | H | vs Hull | 2–2 | D |
| 18 Sept | A | vs Brentford | 0–3 | L |
Hull
| 22 Aug | H | vs Man Utd | 2–0 | W |
| 29 Aug | A | vs Coventry | 1–0 | W |
| 5 Sept | H | vs Aston Villa | 0–0 | D |
| 12 Sept | A | vs Chelsea | 2–2 | D |
| 19 Sept | A | vs Newcastle | 1–2 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Chelsea (Home · 5 matches) | Hull (Away · 4 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 60.0% | 50.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 60.0% | 50.0% |
| Clean sheet | 20.0% | 25.0% |
| Avg goals | 4.20 | 2.25 |
Home stats use Chelsea's home record; away stats use Hull's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.