Bournemouth vs Everton — Premier League result and pre-match forecast, Saturday, 29 August 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · under an hour before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
Bournemouth
44%
top pick
Draw
27%
result
Everton
29%
Final score
1–1
Top pick missed
Metis gave the draw 27.3% before kick-off, and its most likely result was a Bournemouth win. Expected goals 1.43–1.11 against 1–1 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 1–1 (13.0%), 1–0 (10.6%), 2–1 (9.3%). It finished 1–1 — one of them.
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Bournemouth
| 23 Aug | A | vs Man City | 1–2 | L |
| 29 Aug | H | vs Everton | 1–1 | D |
| 5 Sept | A | vs Newcastle | 2–2 | D |
| 12 Sept | H | vs Brentford | 2–2 | D |
| 20 Sept | H | vs Liverpool | 0–1 | L |
Everton
| 22 Aug | H | vs Crystal Palace | 2–0 | W |
| 29 Aug | A | vs Bournemouth | 1–1 | D |
| 6 Sept | H | vs Man Utd | 2–2 | D |
| 12 Sept | A | vs Tottenham | 0–0 | D |
| 19 Sept | H | vs Ipswich | 1–0 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Bournemouth (Home · 3 matches) | Everton (Away · 2 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 66.7% | 50.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 33.3% | 0.0% |
| Clean sheet | 0.0% | 50.0% |
| Avg goals | 2.33 | 1.00 |
Home stats use Bournemouth's home record; away stats use Everton's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.