Aston Villa vs Nottm Forest — Premier League result and pre-match forecast, Saturday, 12 September 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · 5.6 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
Aston Villa
43%
top pick
Draw
28%
Nottm Forest
29%
result
Final score
1–2
Top pick missed
Metis gave a Nottm Forest win 28.9% before kick-off, and its most likely result was an Aston Villa win. Expected goals 1.43–1.14 against 1–2 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 1–1 (13.4%), 1–0 (10.1%), 2–1 (9.1%). It finished 1–2.
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Aston Villa
| 23 Aug | A | vs Brighton | 0–4 | L |
| 31 Aug | H | vs Arsenal | 0–1 | L |
| 5 Sept | A | vs Hull | 0–0 | D |
| 12 Sept | H | vs Nottm Forest | 1–2 | L |
| 19 Sept | A | vs Tottenham | 3–2 | W |
Nottm Forest
| 22 Aug | H | vs Leeds | 0–1 | L |
| 29 Aug | A | vs Liverpool | 2–2 | D |
| 5 Sept | H | vs Tottenham | 0–0 | D |
| 12 Sept | A | vs Aston Villa | 2–1 | W |
| 19 Sept | H | vs Coventry | 0–1 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Aston Villa (Home · 5 matches) | Nottm Forest (Away · 5 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 80.0% | 80.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 60.0% | 60.0% |
| Clean sheet | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Avg goals | 2.60 | 3.00 |
Home stats use Aston Villa's home record; away stats use Nottm Forest's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.