Tromso vs Ham-Kam — Eliteserien forecast, Sunday, 20 September 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Tromso
65%
Draw
20%
Ham-Kam
15%
Expected goals
2.21–0.98
Tromso · Ham-Kam
Tromso win 65% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 2–0 (10.1%), 2–1 (9.9%), 1–1 (9.3%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 56% of simulations.
Those three cover 29% of outcomes; the other 71% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
Tromso score at least twice in 65%; Ham-Kam in 26%.
Scoreline distribution
Ham-Kam goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.7 | 3.4 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 8.4 | 9.3 | 4.5 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.1 | 9.9 | 4.7 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.4 | 7.3 | 3.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 4.1 | 4.0 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 2.8 | 2.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: Tromso goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 65% | 21% | 15% |
| Market reference | 65% | 20% | 15% |
| Metis Forecast | 65% | 20% | 15% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
Market odds
| Market | Pinnacle | Bet365 | William Hill | 1xBet | Betano | Betfair SB | BetVictor | MarathonBet | SBO | Best |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tromso | 1.51 | 1.50 | 1.44 | 1.50 | 1.50 | 1.44 | 1.45 | 1.46 | 1.45 | 1.51 Pinnacle |
| Draw | 4.74 | 4.50 | 4.20 | 4.57 | 4.30 | 4.50 | 4.33 | 4.45 | 4.06 | 4.74 Pinnacle |
| Ham-Kam | 6.18 | 5.75 | 5.80 | 6.21 | 5.90 | 6.00 | 5.75 | 6.05 | 5.22 | 6.21 1xBet |
Reference prices, published with the 23 Sep · 03:58 UTC model run. They are not live and will have moved since.
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Recent form
Tromso
| 15 Mar | H | vs Fredrikstad | 4–0 | W |
| 22 Mar | A | vs Brann | 2–1 | W |
| 6 Apr | H | vs Rosenborg | 2–0 | W |
| 11 Apr | H | vs Kristiansund | 2–0 | W |
| 15 Apr | H | vs Lillestrom | 0–0 | D |
No recent results.
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Tromso (Home · 11 matches) | Ham-Kam (Away · no matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 27.3% | — |
| Over 2.5 rate | 45.5% | — |
| Clean sheet | 63.6% | — |
| Avg goals | 2.73 | — |
Home stats use Tromso's home record; away stats use Ham-Kam's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.