Ham-Kam vs Sarpsborg 08 — Eliteserien forecast, Sunday, 8 November 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Ham-Kam
31%
Draw
24%
Sarpsborg 08
45%
Expected goals
1.43–1.78
Ham-Kam · Sarpsborg 08
Sarpsborg 08 win 45% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (11.0%), 1–2 (9.0%), 2–1 (7.5%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 64% of simulations.
Those three cover 28% of outcomes; the other 72% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
The most likely Sarpsborg 08 win is 1–2 (9.0%).
Ham-Kam score at least twice in 42%; Sarpsborg 08 in 53%.
Scoreline distribution
Sarpsborg 08 goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.8 | 6.3 | 6.4 | 3.8 | 1.7 | 0.9 |
| 1 | 5.1 | 11.0 | 9.0 | 5.4 | 2.4 | 1.2 |
| 2 | 4.2 | 7.5 | 6.5 | 3.8 | 1.7 | 0.9 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 3.5 | 3.2 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
Rows: Ham-Kam goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 30% | 25% | 46% |
| Market reference | 31% | 24% | 45% |
| Metis Forecast | 31% | 24% | 45% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
Market odds
| Market | Pinnacle |
|---|---|
| Ham-Kam | 3.10 |
| Draw | 3.86 |
| Sarpsborg 08 | 2.15 |
Market reference: Pinnacle. Prices shown for context, not as a best-price comparison.
Reference prices, published with the 02 Nov · 05:06 UTC model run. They are not live and will have moved since.
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Recent form
No recent results.
Sarpsborg 08
| 22 Mar | A | vs Sandefjord | 2–0 | W |
| 6 Apr | H | vs Start | 1–1 | D |
| 12 Apr | A | vs Rosenborg | 1–2 | L |
| 15 Apr | H | vs Bodo/Glimt | 1–1 | D |
| 19 Apr | H | vs Tromso | 0–1 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Ham-Kam (Home · no matches) | Sarpsborg 08 (Away · 12 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | — | 58.3% |
| Over 2.5 rate | — | 58.3% |
| Clean sheet | — | 25.0% |
| Avg goals | — | 2.92 |
Home stats use Ham-Kam's home record; away stats use Sarpsborg 08's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.