Ham-Kam vs Rosenborg — Eliteserien forecast, Saturday, 24 October 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Ham-Kam
18%
Draw
22%
Rosenborg
60%
Expected goals
1.17–2.24
Ham-Kam · Rosenborg
Rosenborg win 60% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (9.8%), 1–2 (9.5%), 0–2 (8.2%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 62% of simulations.
Those three cover 28% of outcomes; the other 72% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
The most likely Rosenborg win is 1–2 (9.5%).
Ham-Kam score at least twice in 33%; Rosenborg in 65%.
Scoreline distribution
Rosenborg goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.2 | 6.6 | 8.2 | 6.2 | 3.5 | 2.4 |
| 1 | 3.1 | 9.8 | 9.5 | 7.2 | 4.0 | 2.8 |
| 2 | 2.2 | 5.0 | 5.9 | 4.2 | 2.3 | 1.6 |
| 3 | 0.9 | 1.9 | 2.2 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.6 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 |
| 5+ | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
Rows: Ham-Kam goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 18% | 21% | 61% |
| Market reference | 18% | 22% | 60% |
| Metis Forecast | 18% | 22% | 60% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
Market odds
| Market | Pinnacle |
|---|---|
| Ham-Kam | 5.17 |
| Draw | 4.25 |
| Rosenborg | 1.60 |
Market reference: Pinnacle. Prices shown for context, not as a best-price comparison.
Reference prices, published with the 23 Oct · 04:31 UTC model run. They are not live and will have moved since.
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Recent form
No recent results.
Rosenborg
| 14 Mar | A | vs Molde | 0–2 | L |
| 22 Mar | H | vs Valerenga | 0–2 | L |
| 6 Apr | A | vs Tromso | 0–2 | L |
| 12 Apr | H | vs Sarpsborg 08 | 2–1 | W |
| 18 Apr | A | vs Sandefjord | 0–0 | D |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Ham-Kam (Home · no matches) | Rosenborg (Away · 11 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | — | 27.3% |
| Over 2.5 rate | — | 54.5% |
| Clean sheet | — | 36.4% |
| Avg goals | — | 2.91 |
Home stats use Ham-Kam's home record; away stats use Rosenborg's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.