Vancouver Whitecaps vs St. Louis City — MLS result and pre-match forecast, Sunday, 6 September 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · 18.6 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
Vancouver Whitecaps
64%
top pick
Draw
20%
St. Louis City
16%
result
Final score
1–3
Top pick missed
Metis gave a St. Louis City win 16.5% before kick-off, and its most likely result was a Vancouver Whitecaps win. Expected goals 2.37–1.04 against 1–3 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 1–1 (9.0%), 2–0 (8.9%), 2–1 (8.5%). It finished 1–3.
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Vancouver Whitecaps
| 22 Feb | H | vs Real Salt Lake | 1–0 | W |
| 1 Mar | H | vs Toronto FC | 3–0 | W |
| 8 Mar | A | vs Portland Timbers | 4–1 | W |
| 15 Mar | H | vs Minnesota United | 6–0 | W |
| 22 Mar | H | vs San Jose Earthquakes | 0–1 | L |
St. Louis City
| 21 Feb | H | vs Charlotte | 1–1 | D |
| 2 Mar | A | vs San Diego FC | 0–2 | L |
| 8 Mar | H | vs Seattle Sounders | 0–1 | L |
| 15 Mar | A | vs Los Angeles FC | 0–2 | L |
| 22 Mar | H | vs New England Revolution | 3–1 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Vancouver Whitecaps (Home · 17 matches) | St. Louis City (Away · 16 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 47.1% | 62.5% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 70.6% | 50.0% |
| Clean sheet | 41.2% | 12.5% |
| Avg goals | 3.53 | 2.94 |
Home stats use Vancouver Whitecaps's home record; away stats use St. Louis City's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.