Vancouver Whitecaps vs DC United — MLS forecast, Sunday, 27 September 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Vancouver Whitecaps
78%
Draw
14%
DC United
9%
Expected goals
2.76–0.85
Vancouver Whitecaps · DC United
Vancouver Whitecaps win 78% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 2–0 (10.5%), 3–0 (9.5%), 2–1 (9.1%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 54% of simulations.
Those three cover 29% of outcomes; the other 71% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
Vancouver Whitecaps score at least twice in 77%; DC United in 21%.
Scoreline distribution
DC United goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.9 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 7.2 | 6.2 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 10.5 | 9.1 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 9.5 | 8.2 | 3.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 6.5 | 5.6 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 6.1 | 5.2 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: Vancouver Whitecaps goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 76% | 15% | 9% |
| Market reference | 78% | 14% | 9% |
| Metis Forecast | 78% | 14% | 9% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
Market odds
| Market | Pinnacle |
|---|---|
| Vancouver Whitecaps | 1.25 |
| Draw | 6.54 |
| DC United | 9.71 |
Market reference: Pinnacle. Prices shown for context, not as a best-price comparison.
Reference prices, published with the 23 Sep · 03:58 UTC model run. They are not live and will have moved since.
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Vancouver Whitecaps
| 22 Feb | H | vs Real Salt Lake | 1–0 | W |
| 1 Mar | H | vs Toronto FC | 3–0 | W |
| 8 Mar | A | vs Portland Timbers | 4–1 | W |
| 15 Mar | H | vs Minnesota United | 6–0 | W |
| 22 Mar | H | vs San Jose Earthquakes | 0–1 | L |
DC United
| 22 Feb | H | vs Philadelphia Union | 1–0 | W |
| 1 Mar | A | vs Austin FC | 0–1 | L |
| 7 Mar | H | vs Inter Miami | 1–2 | L |
| 15 Mar | A | vs Chicago Fire | 2–1 | W |
| 21 Mar | A | vs Atlanta Utd | 0–0 | D |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Vancouver Whitecaps (Home · 14 matches) | DC United (Away · 11 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 35.7% | 54.5% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 64.3% | 36.4% |
| Clean sheet | 50.0% | 27.3% |
| Avg goals | 3.07 | 2.45 |
Home stats use Vancouver Whitecaps's home record; away stats use DC United's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.