Vancouver Whitecaps vs Austin FC — MLS result and pre-match forecast, Sunday, 13 September 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · 38.1 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
Vancouver Whitecaps
76%
top pick
Draw
14%
Austin FC
10%
result
Final score
1–2
Top pick missed
Metis gave an Austin FC win 9.7% before kick-off, and its most likely result was a Vancouver Whitecaps win. Expected goals 3.06–0.90 against 1–2 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 3–0 (8.9%), 2–0 (8.2%), 4–0 (7.3%). It finished 1–2.
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Vancouver Whitecaps
| 22 Feb | H | vs Real Salt Lake | 1–0 | W |
| 1 Mar | H | vs Toronto FC | 3–0 | W |
| 8 Mar | A | vs Portland Timbers | 4–1 | W |
| 15 Mar | H | vs Minnesota United | 6–0 | W |
| 22 Mar | H | vs San Jose Earthquakes | 0–1 | L |
Austin FC
| 22 Feb | H | vs Minnesota United | 2–2 | D |
| 1 Mar | H | vs DC United | 1–0 | W |
| 8 Mar | A | vs Charlotte | 1–3 | L |
| 15 Mar | A | vs Real Salt Lake | 1–2 | L |
| 22 Mar | H | vs Los Angeles FC | 0–0 | D |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Vancouver Whitecaps (Home · 17 matches) | Austin FC (Away · 17 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 47.1% | 70.6% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 70.6% | 88.2% |
| Clean sheet | 41.2% | 5.9% |
| Avg goals | 3.53 | 3.53 |
Home stats use Vancouver Whitecaps's home record; away stats use Austin FC's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.