San Jose arrive at BMO Field in the form of genuine title contenders, having won all five of their away fixtures this season and conceding just 0.5 goals per game on the road. That defensive solidity is striking — keeping clean sheets in half their away games while still averaging 2.2 goals scored suggests a team that can win matches multiple ways. Toronto, sitting 14th, have steadied somewhat with three draws in their last five but have conceded in every home game this season, making them genuinely vulnerable to a San Jose attack in this kind of form.

The goal data pulls in opposite directions here. Toronto's home matches have seen BTTS land every single time this season, well above the league average of 58%, but San Jose's away record tells a different story — tighter, more controlled, and far less open. This looks like a contest where San Jose's structure could suppress what has been a leaky Toronto home environment. The visitors look undervalued if the market is accounting too heavily for Toronto's attacking output.