Toronto FC vs New York City — MLS result and pre-match forecast, Sunday, 30 August 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · 7.8 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
Toronto FC
39%
top pick
Draw
26%
result
New York City
36%
Final score
1–1
Top pick missed
Metis gave the draw 25.7% before kick-off, and its most likely result was a Toronto FC win. Expected goals 1.51–1.46 against 1–1 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 1–1 (11.9%), 2–1 (8.7%), 1–2 (8.2%). It finished 1–1 — one of them.
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Toronto FC
| 22 Feb | A | vs FC Dallas | 2–3 | L |
| 1 Mar | A | vs Vancouver Whitecaps | 0–3 | L |
| 8 Mar | A | vs FC Cincinnati | 1–0 | W |
| 14 Mar | H | vs New York Red Bulls | 1–1 | D |
| 21 Mar | H | vs Columbus Crew | 2–1 | W |
New York City
| 23 Feb | A | vs Los Angeles Galaxy | 1–1 | D |
| 1 Mar | A | vs Philadelphia Union | 2–1 | W |
| 7 Mar | H | vs Orlando City | 5–0 | W |
| 14 Mar | H | vs Colorado Rapids | 3–1 | W |
| 22 Mar | H | vs Inter Miami | 2–3 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Toronto FC (Home · 17 matches) | New York City (Away · 16 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 100.0% | 68.8% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 76.5% | 43.8% |
| Clean sheet | 0.0% | 12.5% |
| Avg goals | 4.06 | 2.44 |
Home stats use Toronto FC's home record; away stats use New York City's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.