Toronto FC vs Nashville SC — MLS result and pre-match forecast, Thursday, 10 September 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · 20.2 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
Toronto FC
32%
result
Draw
26%
Nashville SC
42%
top pick
Final score
2–1
Top pick missed
Metis gave a Toronto FC win 31.9% before kick-off, and its most likely result was a Nashville SC win. Expected goals 1.40–1.65 against 2–1 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 1–1 (12.2%), 1–2 (8.6%), 2–1 (7.9%). It finished 2–1 — one of them.
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Toronto FC
| 22 Feb | A | vs FC Dallas | 2–3 | L |
| 1 Mar | A | vs Vancouver Whitecaps | 0–3 | L |
| 8 Mar | A | vs FC Cincinnati | 1–0 | W |
| 14 Mar | H | vs New York Red Bulls | 1–1 | D |
| 21 Mar | H | vs Columbus Crew | 2–1 | W |
Nashville SC
| 22 Feb | H | vs New England Revolution | 4–1 | W |
| 1 Mar | A | vs FC Dallas | 0–0 | D |
| 8 Mar | H | vs Minnesota United | 3–1 | W |
| 14 Mar | A | vs Columbus Crew | 1–0 | W |
| 21 Mar | H | vs Orlando City | 5–0 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Toronto FC (Home · 17 matches) | Nashville SC (Away · 16 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 100.0% | 37.5% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 76.5% | 37.5% |
| Clean sheet | 0.0% | 50.0% |
| Avg goals | 4.06 | 2.00 |
Home stats use Toronto FC's home record; away stats use Nashville SC's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.