Toronto FC have been leaky at home all season, yet prolific enough to keep games alive. A clean sheet in zero of their home fixtures tells its own story, and their average of nearly four combined goals per home game sits well above the league norm. BTTS has landed in every single one of those matches, making them a very different proposition at BMO Field than the league average would suggest.

Inter Miami arrive in decent shape, unbeaten in four, and have shown defensive solidity on the road with clean sheets in nearly a third of away games. Their away O2.5 rate mirrors Toronto's home rate, which is notable.

With no head-to-head history to lean on, the form book does most of the talking here. Miami's composure away from home against a Toronto side still searching for consistency points to a visitor side that looks undervalued. Goals feel likely, and this one looks more open than the table positions imply.