Toronto FC vs Chicago Fire — MLS result and pre-match forecast, Sunday, 6 September 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Independent model — no market priceFrozen as published · 15.6 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
Toronto FC
29%
Draw
24%
result
Chicago Fire
47%
top pick
Final score
4–4
Top pick missed
Metis gave the draw 24.3% before kick-off, and its most likely result was a Chicago Fire win. Expected goals 1.42–1.84 against 4–4 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 1–1 (10.8%), 1–2 (9.2%), 2–1 (7.1%). It finished 4–4.
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Toronto FC
| 22 Feb | A | vs FC Dallas | 2–3 | L |
| 1 Mar | A | vs Vancouver Whitecaps | 0–3 | L |
| 8 Mar | A | vs FC Cincinnati | 1–0 | W |
| 14 Mar | H | vs New York Red Bulls | 1–1 | D |
| 21 Mar | H | vs Columbus Crew | 2–1 | W |
Chicago Fire
| 22 Feb | A | vs Houston Dynamo | 1–2 | L |
| 28 Feb | H | vs CF Montreal | 3–0 | W |
| 8 Mar | A | vs Columbus Crew | 0–0 | D |
| 15 Mar | H | vs DC United | 1–2 | L |
| 21 Mar | A | vs Philadelphia Union | 2–1 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Toronto FC (Home · 17 matches) | Chicago Fire (Away · 17 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 100.0% | 70.6% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 76.5% | 70.6% |
| Clean sheet | 0.0% | 17.6% |
| Avg goals | 4.06 | 3.53 |
Home stats use Toronto FC's home record; away stats use Chicago Fire's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.