St. Louis City vs Toronto FC — MLS result and pre-match forecast, Sunday, 20 September 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · 20.9 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
St. Louis City
60%
pick · result
Draw
21%
Toronto FC
19%
Final score
3–1
Top pick landed
Metis gave a St. Louis City win 59.7% before kick-off, and its most likely result was a St. Louis City win. Expected goals 2.10–1.16 against 3–1 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 2–1 (10.5%), 1–1 (9.6%), 2–0 (8.7%). It finished 3–1.
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St. Louis City
| 21 Feb | H | vs Charlotte | 1–1 | D |
| 2 Mar | A | vs San Diego FC | 0–2 | L |
| 8 Mar | H | vs Seattle Sounders | 0–1 | L |
| 15 Mar | A | vs Los Angeles FC | 0–2 | L |
| 22 Mar | H | vs New England Revolution | 3–1 | W |
Toronto FC
| 22 Feb | A | vs FC Dallas | 2–3 | L |
| 1 Mar | A | vs Vancouver Whitecaps | 0–3 | L |
| 8 Mar | A | vs FC Cincinnati | 1–0 | W |
| 14 Mar | H | vs New York Red Bulls | 1–1 | D |
| 21 Mar | H | vs Columbus Crew | 2–1 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | St. Louis City (Home · 17 matches) | Toronto FC (Away · 16 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 70.6% | 56.2% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 64.7% | 62.5% |
| Clean sheet | 17.6% | 25.0% |
| Avg goals | 3.47 | 2.81 |
Home stats use St. Louis City's home record; away stats use Toronto FC's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.