Sporting Kansas City vs Philadelphia Union — MLS result and pre-match forecast, Sunday, 20 September 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · 20.9 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
Sporting Kansas City
19%
Draw
21%
Philadelphia Union
60%
pick · result
Final score
3–4
Top pick landed
Metis gave a Philadelphia Union win 60.4% before kick-off, and its most likely result was a Philadelphia Union win. Expected goals 1.22–2.36 against 3–4 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 1–1 (8.9%), 1–2 (8.7%), 0–2 (7.5%). It finished 3–4.
Want the model's read each week? Subscribe for free.
Recent form
Sporting Kansas City
| 22 Feb | A | vs San Jose Earthquakes | 0–3 | L |
| 1 Mar | H | vs Columbus Crew | 2–2 | D |
| 8 Mar | H | vs San Diego FC | 0–1 | L |
| 15 Mar | A | vs Los Angeles Galaxy | 2–1 | W |
| 22 Mar | H | vs Colorado Rapids | 1–4 | L |
Philadelphia Union
| 22 Feb | A | vs DC United | 0–1 | L |
| 1 Mar | H | vs New York City | 1–2 | L |
| 8 Mar | H | vs San Jose Earthquakes | 0–1 | L |
| 14 Mar | A | vs Atlanta Utd | 1–3 | L |
| 21 Mar | H | vs Chicago Fire | 1–2 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Sporting Kansas City (Home · 17 matches) | Philadelphia Union (Away · 17 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 82.4% | 70.6% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 70.6% | 70.6% |
| Clean sheet | 0.0% | 11.8% |
| Avg goals | 3.47 | 3.94 |
Home stats use Sporting Kansas City's home record; away stats use Philadelphia Union's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.