Sporting Kansas City vs Austin FC — MLS forecast, Sunday, 25 October 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Sporting Kansas City
44%
Draw
24%
Austin FC
32%
Expected goals
1.72–1.41
Sporting Kansas City · Austin FC
Sporting Kansas City win 44% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (10.8%), 2–1 (9.0%), 1–2 (7.9%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 62% of simulations.
Those three cover 28% of outcomes; the other 72% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
The most likely Sporting Kansas City win is 2–1 (9.0%).
Sporting Kansas City score at least twice in 51%; Austin FC in 41%.
Scoreline distribution
Austin FC goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.0 | 5.7 | 4.5 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 6.7 | 10.8 | 7.9 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 9.0 | 6.0 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 5.2 | 3.6 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 2.3 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.8 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: Sporting Kansas City goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 45% | 25% | 30% |
| Market reference | 44% | 24% | 32% |
| Metis Forecast | 44% | 24% | 32% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
Market odds
| Market | Pinnacle |
|---|---|
| Sporting Kansas City | 2.17 |
| Draw | 3.97 |
| Austin FC | 2.96 |
Market reference: Pinnacle. Prices shown for context, not as a best-price comparison.
Reference prices, published with the 23 Oct · 04:31 UTC model run. They are not live and will have moved since.
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Recent form
Sporting Kansas City
| 22 Feb | A | vs San Jose Earthquakes | 0–3 | L |
| 1 Mar | H | vs Columbus Crew | 2–2 | D |
| 8 Mar | H | vs San Diego FC | 0–1 | L |
| 15 Mar | A | vs Los Angeles Galaxy | 2–1 | W |
| 22 Mar | H | vs Colorado Rapids | 1–4 | L |
Austin FC
| 22 Feb | H | vs Minnesota United | 2–2 | D |
| 1 Mar | H | vs DC United | 1–0 | W |
| 8 Mar | A | vs Charlotte | 1–3 | L |
| 15 Mar | A | vs Real Salt Lake | 1–2 | L |
| 22 Mar | H | vs Los Angeles FC | 0–0 | D |
Head to head
| 17 May 26 | Austin FCvsSporting Kansas City | 1 – 2 |
Sporting Kansas City: 1W 0D 0L in last 1
Model context
| Stat | Sporting Kansas City (Home · 15 matches) | Austin FC (Away · 15 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 80.0% | 66.7% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 73.3% | 86.7% |
| Clean sheet | 0.0% | 6.7% |
| Avg goals | 3.60 | 3.47 |
Home stats use Sporting Kansas City's home record; away stats use Austin FC's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.