Seattle Sounders vs Sporting Kansas City — MLS result and pre-match forecast, Friday, 2 October 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · 17.4 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
Seattle Sounders
65%
pick · result
Draw
18%
Sporting Kansas City
17%
Final score
2–1
Top pick landed
Metis gave a Seattle Sounders win 64.7% before kick-off, and its most likely result was a Seattle Sounders win. Expected goals 2.19–1.06 against 2–1 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 2–1 (10.8%), 2–0 (9.7%), 1–1 (8.5%). It finished 2–1 — one of them.
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Seattle Sounders
| 23 Feb | H | vs Colorado Rapids | 2–0 | W |
| 1 Mar | A | vs Real Salt Lake | 1–2 | L |
| 8 Mar | A | vs St. Louis City | 1–0 | W |
| 15 Mar | A | vs San Jose Earthquakes | 1–0 | W |
| 22 Mar | A | vs Minnesota United | 0–0 | D |
Sporting Kansas City
| 22 Feb | A | vs San Jose Earthquakes | 0–3 | L |
| 1 Mar | H | vs Columbus Crew | 2–2 | D |
| 8 Mar | H | vs San Diego FC | 0–1 | L |
| 15 Mar | A | vs Los Angeles Galaxy | 2–1 | W |
| 22 Mar | H | vs Colorado Rapids | 1–4 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Seattle Sounders (Home · 17 matches) | Sporting Kansas City (Away · 17 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 64.7% | 47.1% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 52.9% | 82.4% |
| Clean sheet | 17.6% | 11.8% |
| Avg goals | 2.88 | 3.65 |
Home stats use Seattle Sounders's home record; away stats use Sporting Kansas City's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.