Seattle Sounders vs Sporting Kansas City — MLS forecast, Friday, 2 October 2026
Metis Forecast
Independent model — no market priceModel updated
Seattle Sounders
59%
Draw
23%
Sporting Kansas City
18%
Expected goals
2.02–1.05
Seattle Sounders · Sporting Kansas City
Seattle Sounders win 59% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (10.6%), 2–1 (9.9%), 2–0 (9.5%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 57% of simulations.
Those three cover 30% of outcomes; the other 70% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
The most likely Seattle Sounders win is 2–1 (9.9%).
Seattle Sounders score at least twice in 60%; Sporting Kansas City in 28%.
Scoreline distribution
Sporting Kansas City goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 4.1 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.6 | 10.6 | 5.2 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.5 | 9.9 | 5.2 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.4 | 6.7 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.2 | 3.4 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 1.9 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: Seattle Sounders goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Most likely scores
Market odds
| Market | Pinnacle | Bet365 | William Hill | Betano | Betfair SB | BetVictor | MarathonBet | Best |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Seattle Sounders | 1.47 | 1.44 | 1.44 | 1.47 | 1.40 | 1.40 | 1.42 | 1.47 Pinnacle |
| Draw | 5.02 | 4.75 | 4.40 | 4.90 | 5.00 | 4.80 | 4.80 | 5.02 Pinnacle |
| Sporting Kansas City | 5.58 | 5.75 | 5.50 | 5.90 | 6.00 | 5.75 | 6.15 | 6.15 MarathonBet |
Reference prices, published with the 27 Sep · 03:48 UTC model run. They are not live and will have moved since.
Want the model's read each week? Subscribe for free.
Recent form
Seattle Sounders
| 23 Feb | H | vs Colorado Rapids | 2–0 | W |
| 1 Mar | A | vs Real Salt Lake | 1–2 | L |
| 8 Mar | A | vs St. Louis City | 1–0 | W |
| 15 Mar | A | vs San Jose Earthquakes | 1–0 | W |
| 22 Mar | A | vs Minnesota United | 0–0 | D |
Sporting Kansas City
| 22 Feb | A | vs San Jose Earthquakes | 0–3 | L |
| 1 Mar | H | vs Columbus Crew | 2–2 | D |
| 8 Mar | H | vs San Diego FC | 0–1 | L |
| 15 Mar | A | vs Los Angeles Galaxy | 2–1 | W |
| 22 Mar | H | vs Colorado Rapids | 1–4 | L |
Head to head
| 2 May 26 | Sporting Kansas CityvsSeattle Sounders | 1 – 1 |
Seattle Sounders: 0W 1D 0L in last 1
Model context
| Stat | Seattle Sounders (Home · 12 matches) | Sporting Kansas City (Away · 12 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 58.3% | 50.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 50.0% | 91.7% |
| Clean sheet | 25.0% | 0.0% |
| Avg goals | 3.00 | 4.00 |
Home stats use Seattle Sounders's home record; away stats use Sporting Kansas City's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.