Seattle Sounders vs Real Salt Lake — MLS forecast, Thursday, 24 September 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Seattle Sounders
52%
Draw
25%
Real Salt Lake
24%
Expected goals
1.79–1.18
Seattle Sounders · Real Salt Lake
Seattle Sounders win 52% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (11.6%), 2–1 (10.3%), 1–0 (8.7%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 59% of simulations.
Those three cover 31% of outcomes; the other 69% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
The most likely Seattle Sounders win is 2–1 (10.3%).
Seattle Sounders score at least twice in 54%; Real Salt Lake in 33%.
Scoreline distribution
Real Salt Lake goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 4.9 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.7 | 11.6 | 6.1 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.3 | 10.3 | 5.7 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.8 | 5.9 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.0 | 2.5 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 1.0 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: Seattle Sounders goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 48% | 26% | 27% |
| Market reference | 52% | 25% | 24% |
| Metis Forecast | 52% | 25% | 24% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
Market odds
| Market | Pinnacle | Bet365 | William Hill | Betano | Betfair SB | BetVictor | MarathonBet | SBO | Best |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Seattle Sounders | 1.86 | 1.85 | 1.85 | 1.93 | 1.85 | 1.83 | 1.83 | 1.84 | 1.93 Betano |
| Draw | 3.81 | 3.90 | 3.60 | 3.85 | 3.75 | 3.90 | 3.74 | 3.32 | 3.90 Bet365 |
| Real Salt Lake | 3.96 | 3.80 | 3.70 | 4.05 | 3.90 | 3.75 | 3.82 | 3.28 | 4.05 Betano |
Reference prices, published with the 23 Sep · 03:58 UTC model run. They are not live and will have moved since.
What changed overnight?
vs previous runxG 1.75–1.22 → 1.79–1.18
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Recent form
Seattle Sounders
| 23 Feb | H | vs Colorado Rapids | 2–0 | W |
| 1 Mar | A | vs Real Salt Lake | 1–2 | L |
| 8 Mar | A | vs St. Louis City | 1–0 | W |
| 15 Mar | A | vs San Jose Earthquakes | 1–0 | W |
| 22 Mar | A | vs Minnesota United | 0–0 | D |
Real Salt Lake
| 22 Feb | A | vs Vancouver Whitecaps | 0–1 | L |
| 1 Mar | H | vs Seattle Sounders | 2–1 | W |
| 8 Mar | A | vs Atlanta Utd | 3–2 | W |
| 15 Mar | H | vs Austin FC | 2–1 | W |
| 22 Mar | A | vs San Diego FC | 2–2 | D |
Head to head
| 1 Mar 26 | Real Salt LakevsSeattle Sounders | 2 – 1 |
Seattle Sounders: 0W 0D 1L in last 1
Model context
| Stat | Seattle Sounders (Home · 11 matches) | Real Salt Lake (Away · 12 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 63.6% | 83.3% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 54.5% | 66.7% |
| Clean sheet | 18.2% | 0.0% |
| Avg goals | 3.09 | 2.92 |
Home stats use Seattle Sounders's home record; away stats use Real Salt Lake's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.