Seattle Sounders vs Real Salt Lake — MLS result and pre-match forecast, Thursday, 24 September 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · 17.2 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
Seattle Sounders
53%
pick · result
Draw
24%
Real Salt Lake
23%
Final score
2–0
Top pick landed
Metis gave a Seattle Sounders win 53.1% before kick-off, and its most likely result was a Seattle Sounders win. Expected goals 1.81–1.16 against 2–0 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 1–1 (11.3%), 2–1 (10.5%), 1–0 (9.0%). It finished 2–0.
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Seattle Sounders
| 23 Feb | H | vs Colorado Rapids | 2–0 | W |
| 1 Mar | A | vs Real Salt Lake | 1–2 | L |
| 8 Mar | A | vs St. Louis City | 1–0 | W |
| 15 Mar | A | vs San Jose Earthquakes | 1–0 | W |
| 22 Mar | A | vs Minnesota United | 0–0 | D |
Real Salt Lake
| 22 Feb | A | vs Vancouver Whitecaps | 0–1 | L |
| 1 Mar | H | vs Seattle Sounders | 2–1 | W |
| 8 Mar | A | vs Atlanta Utd | 3–2 | W |
| 15 Mar | H | vs Austin FC | 2–1 | W |
| 22 Mar | A | vs San Diego FC | 2–2 | D |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Seattle Sounders (Home · 16 matches) | Real Salt Lake (Away · 17 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 62.5% | 82.4% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 50.0% | 70.6% |
| Clean sheet | 18.8% | 0.0% |
| Avg goals | 2.88 | 2.94 |
Home stats use Seattle Sounders's home record; away stats use Real Salt Lake's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.