Seattle Sounders vs Minnesota United — MLS forecast, Sunday, 27 September 2026
Metis Forecast
Independent model — no market priceModel updated
Seattle Sounders
40%
Draw
26%
Minnesota United
35%
Expected goals
1.59–1.47
Seattle Sounders · Minnesota United
Seattle Sounders win 40% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (11.9%), 2–1 (8.7%), 1–2 (8.1%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 62% of simulations.
Those three cover 29% of outcomes; the other 71% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
Seattle Sounders score at least twice in 47%; Minnesota United in 43%.
Scoreline distribution
Minnesota United goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 6.0 | 5.1 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 6.6 | 11.9 | 8.1 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 8.7 | 6.4 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 4.6 | 3.4 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.8 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: Seattle Sounders goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Most likely scores
Market odds
| Market | Pinnacle | Bet365 | William Hill | Betano | Betfair SB | BetVictor | MarathonBet | SBO | Best |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Seattle Sounders | 2.01 | 2.05 | 2.10 | 2.12 | 2.10 | 2.00 | 2.04 | 2.06 | 2.12 Betano |
| Draw | 3.88 | 3.70 | 3.50 | 3.75 | 3.90 | 3.70 | 3.68 | 3.26 | 3.90 Betfair SB |
| Minnesota United | 3.27 | 3.10 | 3.00 | 3.20 | 3.00 | 3.10 | 3.20 | 2.78 | 3.27 Pinnacle |
Reference prices, published with the 24 Sep · 03:44 UTC model run. They are not live and will have moved since.
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Seattle Sounders
| 23 Feb | H | vs Colorado Rapids | 2–0 | W |
| 1 Mar | A | vs Real Salt Lake | 1–2 | L |
| 8 Mar | A | vs St. Louis City | 1–0 | W |
| 15 Mar | A | vs San Jose Earthquakes | 1–0 | W |
| 22 Mar | A | vs Minnesota United | 0–0 | D |
Minnesota United
| 22 Feb | A | vs Austin FC | 2–2 | D |
| 28 Feb | H | vs FC Cincinnati | 1–0 | W |
| 8 Mar | A | vs Nashville SC | 1–3 | L |
| 15 Mar | A | vs Vancouver Whitecaps | 0–6 | L |
| 22 Mar | H | vs Seattle Sounders | 0–0 | D |
Head to head
| 22 Mar 26 | Minnesota UnitedvsSeattle Sounders | 0 – 0 |
Seattle Sounders: 0W 1D 0L in last 1
Model context
| Stat | Seattle Sounders (Home · 11 matches) | Minnesota United (Away · 13 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 63.6% | 84.6% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 54.5% | 84.6% |
| Clean sheet | 18.2% | 7.7% |
| Avg goals | 3.09 | 4.23 |
Home stats use Seattle Sounders's home record; away stats use Minnesota United's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.