Seattle Sounders vs Minnesota United — MLS result and pre-match forecast, Sunday, 27 September 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · 16.2 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
Seattle Sounders
42%
pick · result
Draw
25%
Minnesota United
32%
Final score
3–1
Top pick landed
Metis gave a Seattle Sounders win 42.5% before kick-off, and its most likely result was a Seattle Sounders win. Expected goals 1.62–1.40 against 3–1 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 1–1 (11.7%), 2–1 (9.2%), 1–2 (7.7%). It finished 3–1.
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Seattle Sounders
| 23 Feb | H | vs Colorado Rapids | 2–0 | W |
| 1 Mar | A | vs Real Salt Lake | 1–2 | L |
| 8 Mar | A | vs St. Louis City | 1–0 | W |
| 15 Mar | A | vs San Jose Earthquakes | 1–0 | W |
| 22 Mar | A | vs Minnesota United | 0–0 | D |
Minnesota United
| 22 Feb | A | vs Austin FC | 2–2 | D |
| 28 Feb | H | vs FC Cincinnati | 1–0 | W |
| 8 Mar | A | vs Nashville SC | 1–3 | L |
| 15 Mar | A | vs Vancouver Whitecaps | 0–6 | L |
| 22 Mar | H | vs Seattle Sounders | 0–0 | D |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Seattle Sounders (Home · 16 matches) | Minnesota United (Away · 17 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 62.5% | 82.4% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 50.0% | 82.4% |
| Clean sheet | 18.8% | 11.8% |
| Avg goals | 2.88 | 3.94 |
Home stats use Seattle Sounders's home record; away stats use Minnesota United's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.