Seattle come into this in excellent shape, losing just one of their last five at home and carrying a formidable defensive record on their own patch, conceding an average of just 0.5 goals per home game this season. FC Dallas have shown resilience on the road too, with three clean sheets in away fixtures and a similarly miserly defensive average. Both sides are well below the league average for goals and BTTS, and that pattern is hard to ignore heading into a fixture with no head-to-head history to draw from.

The standout story here is the goalkeeping and defensive solidity on both sides. Dallas have yet to concede in an away BTTS scenario all season, a striking outlier given the league average sits at 58%. Low-scoring, tight affairs are the consistent theme for these two, and nothing in the current form suggests that changes on Sunday.

This one looks considerably tighter than a 5th vs 11th matchup might imply. The visitors are undervalued if the market is leaning heavily on Seattle's home advantage alone.