Seattle Sounders vs Chicago Fire — MLS result and pre-match forecast, Saturday, 29 August 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · 4.8 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
Seattle Sounders
34%
Draw
24%
result
Chicago Fire
41%
top pick
Final score
2–2
Top pick missed
Metis gave the draw 24.2% before kick-off, and its most likely result was a Chicago Fire win. Expected goals 1.58–1.60 against 2–2 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 1–1 (10.9%), 1–2 (10.3%), 0–1 (7.0%). It finished 2–2.
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Seattle Sounders
| 23 Feb | H | vs Colorado Rapids | 2–0 | W |
| 1 Mar | A | vs Real Salt Lake | 1–2 | L |
| 8 Mar | A | vs St. Louis City | 1–0 | W |
| 15 Mar | A | vs San Jose Earthquakes | 1–0 | W |
| 22 Mar | A | vs Minnesota United | 0–0 | D |
Chicago Fire
| 22 Feb | A | vs Houston Dynamo | 1–2 | L |
| 28 Feb | H | vs CF Montreal | 3–0 | W |
| 8 Mar | A | vs Columbus Crew | 0–0 | D |
| 15 Mar | H | vs DC United | 1–2 | L |
| 21 Mar | A | vs Philadelphia Union | 2–1 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Seattle Sounders (Home · 14 matches) | Chicago Fire (Away · 14 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 64.3% | 71.4% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 57.1% | 71.4% |
| Clean sheet | 21.4% | 21.4% |
| Avg goals | 3.07 | 3.43 |
Home stats use Seattle Sounders's home record; away stats use Chicago Fire's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.