🇺🇸 MLS·Saturday, 29 August 2026·20:30
Odds comparison
| Market | Pinnacle | Best |
|---|---|---|
| Seattle Sounders | 2.79 | 2.79 |
| Draw | 4.03 | 4.03 |
| Chicago Fire | 2.34 | 2.34 |
Metis Forecast
model + marketSeattle Sounders
35%
Draw
24%
Chicago Fire
42%
Seattle Sounders 1.69 xGexpected goals1.63 xG Chicago Fire
Chicago Fire win 42% of the current Metis Forecast.
Both teams score in 66% of simulations.
The most likely scoreline is 1–2 (10.9%).
Seattle Sounders score at least twice in 48%; Chicago Fire in 50%.
1–2 10.9%1–1 10.5%0–1 6.7%2–2 6.6%2–1 6.1%0–2 5.2%
Scoreline distribution
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4 | 6.7 | 5.2 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 4.0 | 10.5 | 10.9 | 4.7 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.7 | 6.1 | 6.6 | 4.9 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 4.2 | 2.7 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 2.2 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.2 |
| 5+ | 1.0 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
rows = Seattle Sounders goals · columns = Chicago Fire goals · % of simulations
Match outcomes
Both teams score66%
Over 1.5 goals85%
Over 2.5 goals64%
Over 3.5 goals42%
Over 4.5 goals24%
Seattle Sounders clean sheet19%
Chicago Fire clean sheet20%
Seattle Sounders score 2+48%
Chicago Fire score 2+50%
Seattle Sounders score 3+24%
Model vs market
| Source | Seattle Sounders | Draw | Chicago Fire |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 56% | 23% | 21% |
| Market (de-vigged) | 35% | 24% | 42% |
| Metis Forecast | 35% | 24% | 42% |
The Metis Forecast combines the model's scoreline structure with de-vigged market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model output is kept separate and benchmarked independently.
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Seattle Sounders
| 23 Feb | H | vs Colorado Rapids | 2–0 | W |
| 1 Mar | A | vs Real Salt Lake | 1–2 | L |
| 8 Mar | A | vs St. Louis City | 1–0 | W |
| 15 Mar | A | vs San Jose Earthquakes | 1–0 | W |
| 22 Mar | A | vs Minnesota United | 0–0 | D |
Chicago Fire
| 22 Feb | A | vs Houston Dynamo | 1–2 | L |
| 28 Feb | H | vs CF Montreal | 3–0 | W |
| 8 Mar | A | vs Columbus Crew | 0–0 | D |
| 15 Mar | H | vs DC United | 1–2 | L |
| 21 Mar | A | vs Philadelphia Union | 2–1 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings found.
Model context
| Stat | Seattle Sounders (Home) | Chicago Fire (Away) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 66.7% | 80.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 55.6% | 70.0% |
| Clean sheet | 11.1% | 20.0% |
| Avg goals | 3.33 | 3.20 |
Home stats use Seattle Sounders's home record; away stats use Chicago Fire's away record this season.