San Jose Earthquakes vs Portland Timbers — MLS forecast, Sunday, 27 September 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
San Jose Earthquakes
47%
Draw
24%
Portland Timbers
29%
Expected goals
1.71–1.31
San Jose Earthquakes · Portland Timbers
San Jose Earthquakes win 47% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (11.2%), 2–1 (9.6%), 1–0 (7.7%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 60% of simulations.
Those three cover 28% of outcomes; the other 72% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
The most likely San Jose Earthquakes win is 2–1 (9.6%).
San Jose Earthquakes score at least twice in 51%; Portland Timbers in 38%.
Scoreline distribution
Portland Timbers goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 5.7 | 4.3 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.7 | 11.2 | 7.3 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 9.6 | 5.8 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 5.4 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 2.3 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.8 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: San Jose Earthquakes goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 46% | 26% | 29% |
| Market reference | 47% | 24% | 29% |
| Metis Forecast | 47% | 24% | 29% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
Market odds
| Market | Pinnacle |
|---|---|
| San Jose Earthquakes | 2.05 |
| Draw | 3.90 |
| Portland Timbers | 3.26 |
Market reference: Pinnacle. Prices shown for context, not as a best-price comparison.
Reference prices, published with the 23 Sep · 03:58 UTC model run. They are not live and will have moved since.
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San Jose Earthquakes
| 22 Feb | H | vs Sporting Kansas City | 3–0 | W |
| 1 Mar | H | vs Atlanta Utd | 2–0 | W |
| 8 Mar | A | vs Philadelphia Union | 1–0 | W |
| 15 Mar | H | vs Seattle Sounders | 0–1 | L |
| 22 Mar | A | vs Vancouver Whitecaps | 1–0 | W |
Portland Timbers
| 22 Feb | H | vs Columbus Crew | 3–2 | W |
| 28 Feb | A | vs Colorado Rapids | 0–2 | L |
| 8 Mar | H | vs Vancouver Whitecaps | 1–4 | L |
| 15 Mar | A | vs Houston Dynamo | 2–3 | L |
| 22 Mar | H | vs Los Angeles Galaxy | 1–1 | D |
Head to head
| 24 May 26 | Portland TimbersvsSan Jose Earthquakes | 1 – 3 |
San Jose Earthquakes: 1W 0D 0L in last 1
Model context
| Stat | San Jose Earthquakes (Home · 13 matches) | Portland Timbers (Away · 12 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 53.8% | 66.7% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 61.5% | 58.3% |
| Clean sheet | 30.8% | 0.0% |
| Avg goals | 3.31 | 3.25 |
Home stats use San Jose Earthquakes's home record; away stats use Portland Timbers's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.