San Jose Earthquakes vs Portland Timbers — MLS result and pre-match forecast, Sunday, 27 September 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · 18.2 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
San Jose Earthquakes
49%
pick · result
Draw
24%
Portland Timbers
27%
Final score
3–1
Top pick landed
Metis gave a San Jose Earthquakes win 49.3% before kick-off, and its most likely result was a San Jose Earthquakes win. Expected goals 1.76–1.27 against 3–1 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 1–1 (11.1%), 2–1 (10.0%), 1–0 (8.0%). It finished 3–1.
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San Jose Earthquakes
| 22 Feb | H | vs Sporting Kansas City | 3–0 | W |
| 1 Mar | H | vs Atlanta Utd | 2–0 | W |
| 8 Mar | A | vs Philadelphia Union | 1–0 | W |
| 15 Mar | H | vs Seattle Sounders | 0–1 | L |
| 22 Mar | A | vs Vancouver Whitecaps | 1–0 | W |
Portland Timbers
| 22 Feb | H | vs Columbus Crew | 3–2 | W |
| 28 Feb | A | vs Colorado Rapids | 0–2 | L |
| 8 Mar | H | vs Vancouver Whitecaps | 1–4 | L |
| 15 Mar | A | vs Houston Dynamo | 2–3 | L |
| 22 Mar | H | vs Los Angeles Galaxy | 1–1 | D |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | San Jose Earthquakes (Home · 17 matches) | Portland Timbers (Away · 16 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 64.7% | 68.8% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 64.7% | 62.5% |
| Clean sheet | 23.5% | 0.0% |
| Avg goals | 3.29 | 3.50 |
Home stats use San Jose Earthquakes's home record; away stats use Portland Timbers's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.