San Jose Earthquakes vs Houston Dynamo — MLS result and pre-match forecast, Sunday, 13 September 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · 18.1 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
San Jose Earthquakes
40%
pick · result
Draw
27%
Houston Dynamo
33%
Final score
1–0
Top pick landed
Metis gave a San Jose Earthquakes win 39.8% before kick-off, and its most likely result was a San Jose Earthquakes win. Expected goals 1.59–1.41 against 1–0 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 1–1 (12.4%), 2–1 (8.3%), 1–2 (8.2%). It finished 1–0.
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San Jose Earthquakes
| 22 Feb | H | vs Sporting Kansas City | 3–0 | W |
| 1 Mar | H | vs Atlanta Utd | 2–0 | W |
| 8 Mar | A | vs Philadelphia Union | 1–0 | W |
| 15 Mar | H | vs Seattle Sounders | 0–1 | L |
| 22 Mar | A | vs Vancouver Whitecaps | 1–0 | W |
Houston Dynamo
| 22 Feb | H | vs Chicago Fire | 2–1 | W |
| 1 Mar | H | vs Los Angeles FC | 0–2 | L |
| 15 Mar | H | vs Portland Timbers | 3–2 | W |
| 22 Mar | A | vs FC Dallas | 3–4 | L |
| 5 Apr | H | vs Seattle Sounders | 0–1 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | San Jose Earthquakes (Home · 17 matches) | Houston Dynamo (Away · 17 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 64.7% | 47.1% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 64.7% | 47.1% |
| Clean sheet | 23.5% | 35.3% |
| Avg goals | 3.29 | 3.06 |
Home stats use San Jose Earthquakes's home record; away stats use Houston Dynamo's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.