San Jose come into this in commanding form, winning four of their last five and sitting second in the league. At home this season they have been remarkably difficult to break down, keeping clean sheets in three of four home games and conceding an average of just 0.2 goals per game, well below the league norm. That defensive solidity stands out even more given the league is averaging over three goals per game.

Austin arrive in poor shape, winless in five away fixtures and sitting 23rd in the standings. On the road they have conceded in every game, shipping an average of 2.3 per match, and have yet to keep a clean sheet away from home.

The contrast in profiles here is stark. Austin's away record points to a game where they will likely score, but San Jose's defensive structure at home makes that difficult to envisage. This looks like a match where the home side controls comfortably, and a low-scoring San Jose win feels well supported by the data.