San Diego FC vs Sporting Kansas City — MLS forecast, Sunday, 8 November 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
San Diego FC
69%
Draw
16%
Sporting Kansas City
15%
Expected goals
2.59–1.12
San Diego FC · Sporting Kansas City
San Diego FC win 69% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 2–1 (9.2%), 2–0 (8.4%), 3–1 (8.0%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 62% of simulations.
Those three cover 26% of outcomes; the other 74% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
San Diego FC score at least twice in 73%; Sporting Kansas City in 31%.
Scoreline distribution
Sporting Kansas City goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.8 | 2.4 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 5.9 | 7.0 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.4 | 9.2 | 4.7 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 7.2 | 8.0 | 4.4 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 4.7 | 5.2 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 4.0 | 4.5 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
Rows: San Diego FC goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 70% | 18% | 12% |
| Market reference | 69% | 16% | 15% |
| Metis Forecast | 69% | 16% | 15% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
Market odds
| Market | Pinnacle |
|---|---|
| San Diego FC | 1.40 |
| Draw | 5.59 |
| Sporting Kansas City | 6.14 |
Market reference: Pinnacle. Prices shown for context, not as a best-price comparison.
Reference prices, published with the 01 Nov · 04:37 UTC model run. They are not live and will have moved since.
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Recent form
San Diego FC
| 22 Feb | H | vs CF Montreal | 5–0 | W |
| 2 Mar | H | vs St. Louis City | 2–0 | W |
| 8 Mar | A | vs Sporting Kansas City | 1–0 | W |
| 15 Mar | A | vs FC Dallas | 3–3 | D |
| 22 Mar | H | vs Real Salt Lake | 2–2 | D |
Sporting Kansas City
| 22 Feb | A | vs San Jose Earthquakes | 0–3 | L |
| 1 Mar | H | vs Columbus Crew | 2–2 | D |
| 8 Mar | H | vs San Diego FC | 0–1 | L |
| 15 Mar | A | vs Los Angeles Galaxy | 2–1 | W |
| 22 Mar | H | vs Colorado Rapids | 1–4 | L |
Head to head
| 8 Mar 26 | Sporting Kansas CityvsSan Diego FC | 0 – 1 |
San Diego FC: 1W 0D 0L in last 1
Model context
| Stat | San Diego FC (Home · 16 matches) | Sporting Kansas City (Away · 16 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 62.5% | 50.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 87.5% | 87.5% |
| Clean sheet | 31.2% | 6.2% |
| Avg goals | 4.12 | 3.81 |
Home stats use San Diego FC's home record; away stats use Sporting Kansas City's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.