San Diego FC vs Seattle Sounders — MLS forecast, Sunday, 25 October 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
San Diego FC
44%
Draw
24%
Seattle Sounders
32%
Expected goals
1.71–1.44
San Diego FC · Seattle Sounders
San Diego FC win 44% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (10.9%), 2–1 (9.2%), 1–2 (7.7%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 63% of simulations.
Those three cover 28% of outcomes; the other 72% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
The most likely San Diego FC win is 2–1 (9.2%).
San Diego FC score at least twice in 51%; Seattle Sounders in 42%.
Scoreline distribution
Seattle Sounders goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.0 | 5.5 | 4.6 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 6.7 | 10.9 | 7.7 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 9.2 | 6.2 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 5.2 | 3.7 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 2.2 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: San Diego FC goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 43% | 25% | 32% |
| Market reference | 44% | 24% | 32% |
| Metis Forecast | 44% | 24% | 32% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
Market odds
| Market | Pinnacle |
|---|---|
| San Diego FC | 2.19 |
| Draw | 3.91 |
| Seattle Sounders | 2.95 |
Market reference: Pinnacle. Prices shown for context, not as a best-price comparison.
Reference prices, published with the 23 Oct · 04:31 UTC model run. They are not live and will have moved since.
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San Diego FC
| 22 Feb | H | vs CF Montreal | 5–0 | W |
| 2 Mar | H | vs St. Louis City | 2–0 | W |
| 8 Mar | A | vs Sporting Kansas City | 1–0 | W |
| 15 Mar | A | vs FC Dallas | 3–3 | D |
| 22 Mar | H | vs Real Salt Lake | 2–2 | D |
Seattle Sounders
| 23 Feb | H | vs Colorado Rapids | 2–0 | W |
| 1 Mar | A | vs Real Salt Lake | 1–2 | L |
| 8 Mar | A | vs St. Louis City | 1–0 | W |
| 15 Mar | A | vs San Jose Earthquakes | 1–0 | W |
| 22 Mar | A | vs Minnesota United | 0–0 | D |
Head to head
| 10 May 26 | Seattle SoundersvsSan Diego FC | 1 – 1 |
San Diego FC: 0W 1D 0L in last 1
Model context
| Stat | San Diego FC (Home · 15 matches) | Seattle Sounders (Away · 15 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 60.0% | 46.7% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 86.7% | 33.3% |
| Clean sheet | 33.3% | 33.3% |
| Avg goals | 4.13 | 2.07 |
Home stats use San Diego FC's home record; away stats use Seattle Sounders's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.