San Diego FC vs San Jose Earthquakes — MLS result and pre-match forecast, Thursday, 10 September 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · 23.2 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
San Diego FC
54%
top pick
Draw
21%
San Jose Earthquakes
24%
result
Final score
2–3
Top pick missed
Metis gave a San Jose Earthquakes win 24.2% before kick-off, and its most likely result was a San Diego FC win. Expected goals 1.99–1.32 against 2–3 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 2–1 (10.5%), 1–1 (9.6%), 2–0 (7.6%). It finished 2–3.
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San Diego FC
| 22 Feb | H | vs CF Montreal | 5–0 | W |
| 2 Mar | H | vs St. Louis City | 2–0 | W |
| 8 Mar | A | vs Sporting Kansas City | 1–0 | W |
| 15 Mar | A | vs FC Dallas | 3–3 | D |
| 22 Mar | H | vs Real Salt Lake | 2–2 | D |
San Jose Earthquakes
| 22 Feb | H | vs Sporting Kansas City | 3–0 | W |
| 1 Mar | H | vs Atlanta Utd | 2–0 | W |
| 8 Mar | A | vs Philadelphia Union | 1–0 | W |
| 15 Mar | H | vs Seattle Sounders | 0–1 | L |
| 22 Mar | A | vs Vancouver Whitecaps | 1–0 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | San Diego FC (Home · 16 matches) | San Jose Earthquakes (Away · 16 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 62.5% | 68.8% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 87.5% | 50.0% |
| Clean sheet | 31.2% | 18.8% |
| Avg goals | 4.12 | 3.00 |
Home stats use San Diego FC's home record; away stats use San Jose Earthquakes's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.