San Diego FC vs Philadelphia Union — MLS result and pre-match forecast, Monday, 14 September 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · 40.6 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
San Diego FC
35%
Draw
25%
Philadelphia Union
39%
pick · result
Final score
0–5
Top pick landed
Metis gave a Philadelphia Union win 39.3% before kick-off, and its most likely result was a Philadelphia Union win. Expected goals 1.71–1.69 against 0–5 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 1–1 (10.9%), 1–2 (9.3%), 2–2 (7.3%). It finished 0–5.
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San Diego FC
| 22 Feb | H | vs CF Montreal | 5–0 | W |
| 2 Mar | H | vs St. Louis City | 2–0 | W |
| 8 Mar | A | vs Sporting Kansas City | 1–0 | W |
| 15 Mar | A | vs FC Dallas | 3–3 | D |
| 22 Mar | H | vs Real Salt Lake | 2–2 | D |
Philadelphia Union
| 22 Feb | A | vs DC United | 0–1 | L |
| 1 Mar | H | vs New York City | 1–2 | L |
| 8 Mar | H | vs San Jose Earthquakes | 0–1 | L |
| 14 Mar | A | vs Atlanta Utd | 1–3 | L |
| 21 Mar | H | vs Chicago Fire | 1–2 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | San Diego FC (Home · 16 matches) | Philadelphia Union (Away · 17 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 62.5% | 70.6% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 87.5% | 70.6% |
| Clean sheet | 31.2% | 11.8% |
| Avg goals | 4.12 | 3.94 |
Home stats use San Diego FC's home record; away stats use Philadelphia Union's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.