🇺🇸 MLS·Sunday, 30 August 2026·02:30
Odds comparison
| Market | Pinnacle | Best |
|---|---|---|
| San Diego FC | 1.72 | 1.72 |
| Draw | 4.51 | 4.51 |
| Los Angeles Galaxy | 4.15 | 4.15 |
Metis Forecast
model + marketSan Diego FC
56%
Draw
21%
Los Angeles Galaxy
23%
San Diego FC 1.99 xGexpected goals1.19 xG Los Angeles Galaxy
San Diego FC win 56% of the current Metis Forecast.
Both teams score in 60% of simulations.
The most likely scoreline is 2–1 (10.0%).
San Diego FC score at least twice in 59%; Los Angeles Galaxy in 33%.
2–1 10.0%1–1 9.6%2–0 8.5%1–0 7.8%3–1 6.6%1–2 6.2%
Scoreline distribution
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.8 | 9.6 | 6.2 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.5 | 10.0 | 5.2 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.6 | 6.6 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.8 | 3.3 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 1.6 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
rows = San Diego FC goals · columns = Los Angeles Galaxy goals · % of simulations
Match outcomes
Both teams score60%
Over 1.5 goals83%
Over 2.5 goals62%
Over 3.5 goals39%
Over 4.5 goals22%
San Diego FC clean sheet31%
Los Angeles Galaxy clean sheet14%
San Diego FC score 2+59%
Los Angeles Galaxy score 2+33%
San Diego FC score 3+32%
Model vs market
| Source | San Diego FC | Draw | Los Angeles Galaxy |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 57% | 23% | 20% |
| Market (de-vigged) | 56% | 21% | 23% |
| Metis Forecast | 56% | 21% | 23% |
The Metis Forecast combines the model's scoreline structure with de-vigged market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model output is kept separate and benchmarked independently.
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San Diego FC
| 22 Feb | H | vs CF Montreal | 5–0 | W |
| 2 Mar | H | vs St. Louis City | 2–0 | W |
| 8 Mar | A | vs Sporting Kansas City | 1–0 | W |
| 15 Mar | A | vs FC Dallas | 3–3 | D |
| 22 Mar | H | vs Real Salt Lake | 2–2 | D |
Los Angeles Galaxy
| 23 Feb | H | vs New York City | 1–1 | D |
| 1 Mar | H | vs Charlotte | 3–0 | W |
| 8 Mar | A | vs Colorado Rapids | 1–4 | L |
| 15 Mar | H | vs Sporting Kansas City | 1–2 | L |
| 22 Mar | A | vs Portland Timbers | 1–1 | D |
Head to head
No previous meetings found.
Model context
| Stat | San Diego FC (Home) | Los Angeles Galaxy (Away) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 54.5% | 81.8% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 81.8% | 63.6% |
| Clean sheet | 45.5% | 9.1% |
| Avg goals | 3.82 | 3.00 |
Home stats use San Diego FC's home record; away stats use Los Angeles Galaxy's away record this season.