San Diego FC vs Los Angeles Galaxy — MLS result and pre-match forecast, Sunday, 30 August 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · 10.8 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
San Diego FC
56%
pick · result
Draw
21%
Los Angeles Galaxy
23%
Final score
3–1
Top pick landed
Metis gave a San Diego FC win 56.4% before kick-off, and its most likely result was a San Diego FC win. Expected goals 1.98–1.15 against 3–1 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 2–1 (9.7%), 1–1 (9.7%), 2–0 (8.7%). It finished 3–1.
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San Diego FC
| 22 Feb | H | vs CF Montreal | 5–0 | W |
| 2 Mar | H | vs St. Louis City | 2–0 | W |
| 8 Mar | A | vs Sporting Kansas City | 1–0 | W |
| 15 Mar | A | vs FC Dallas | 3–3 | D |
| 22 Mar | H | vs Real Salt Lake | 2–2 | D |
Los Angeles Galaxy
| 23 Feb | H | vs New York City | 1–1 | D |
| 1 Mar | H | vs Charlotte | 3–0 | W |
| 8 Mar | A | vs Colorado Rapids | 1–4 | L |
| 15 Mar | H | vs Sporting Kansas City | 1–2 | L |
| 22 Mar | A | vs Portland Timbers | 1–1 | D |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | San Diego FC (Home · 14 matches) | Los Angeles Galaxy (Away · 14 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 57.1% | 78.6% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 85.7% | 71.4% |
| Clean sheet | 35.7% | 7.1% |
| Avg goals | 4.00 | 3.21 |
Home stats use San Diego FC's home record; away stats use Los Angeles Galaxy's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.